Clear Cut Chances and the Premier League

Clear Cut chances are one of those underrated stats in football. The definition of a clear cut chance is ‘A situation where a player should reasonably be expected to score usually in a one-on-one scenario or from very close range.’ (EPL Index) So in other words, a clear cut chance is a chance where the attacker is odds on to score, it can range from a one on one finish, a unmarked headed chance or a tap in chance.

My theory is this, the more clear cut chances you create, the more goals you score, let’s see how many clear cut chances the Premier League sides have created this season.

Summary of Clear Cut Chances & Chances Created

Green =best, Red = worst

Home Clear Cut Chances

Stats via EPL Index

Away Clear Cut Chances

Clear Cut Chances and Goals Scored

My theory that the more clear cut chances you create, the more goals you score is not 100% true. The likes of Tottenham and Reading both break that line of thinking, but the stats do suggest a some connection between clear cut chances and goals scored.  

Key Points/ Observations

·         Man United creating clear cut chances in abundance: Man United have created an incredible amount of clear cut chances. This is one of the reasons why United are free scoring this season. United have created more than double the chances of around 6 Premier League sides. One must credit Sir Alex Ferguson’s ability to create sides and find players that have the understanding and tactical awareness to create good chances for their fellow team mates. It is quite clear looking at the stats, Man United create a stupendous amount of clear cut chances at home, no other Premier League side have created 20 clear cut chances at home, while United have created 26, which roughly equates to 3 clear cut chances created per home game. If Man United continue to create clear cut chances at this rate, I believe they will carry on scoring for fun this season.

·         Norwich creating an impressive amount of clear cut chances: Norwich have been on a monumental run of late, going unbeaten in their last 10 PL games. This run has been fuelled by the fact Norwich have the ability to create a decent amount of clear cut chances. A reasonable 15% of the chances Norwich have created have been clear cut. What impresses me about The Canaries, is although they do not create a whole deal of chances, the chances they do create are quality chances, which can be the difference between winning and losing games.

·         Everton have created the most chances in the Premier League: Everton being the top creators in the Premier League is no surprise to me. After all, the likes of Baines are have the fantastic ability to create chances not only in open play but from set pieces too. But Everton creating 27 clear cut chances is not bad at all, what will satisfy David Moyes the most is the a near equilibrium in the clear cut chances created home or away. 

·         Arsenal create the most clear cut chances away from home: Perhaps this comes as no surprise to some, after all, Arsenal are at their most effective when playing on the counter and away from home, they have a better chance to counter, as the opponent presses higher and plays a higher line.

·         Wigan’s poor 4 clear cut chances created away from home is an early concern: At the DW Wigan have no problem creating clear cut chances, however, on the road, it’s a different story. What surprised me was the fact, Wigan’s system is predominantly structured on counter attacking and you’d expect them to create more clear cut chances on the road, given it is more likely that there will be more space for them to exploit on the road. Furthermore, it is probable that a clear cut chance will be created when there is more space, as the marking is lax and players can be found out of position.

·         Liverpool creating chances, but not enough quality chances: Liverpool’s lack of finesse in front of goal has been widely talked about for the past 18 months. However, there have been many calls that, ‘Liverpool are one natural goal scorer away from being successful.’ I am unsure of this, although having a goal poacher would certainly see Liverpool score more goals, the quality of the chances Liverpool have created has not been great. Only 9% of Liverpool’s chances have been clear cut, there are 14 sides who have created more clear cut chances than The Reds, even though Liverpool have created the second highest amount of chances in the Premier League. If Liverpool are to improve their League standing, I feel they need to indeed their chances, but more pertinently the chances they create have to be better, therefore making it easier for the attackers to finish.

·         Aston Villa’s struggling to create at home: A few seasons ago, Villa park was something of a fortress , but a mere 4 clear cut chances being created at home is something which perhaps demonstrates this young Villa sides lack of experience and know how. Perhaps the pressure of playing in front of a big crowd is having an effect on Villa’s expressive side of their game, if you look at their away clear cut chances, its far far better, I think it is a mental aspect which is effecting this young Villa team at home.

·         Tottenham scoring comfortably, yet not created many clear cut chances: This is an odd one, one which really surprised me, prior to looking up the stats, I expected Tottenham to be up there with the teams creating the most quality chances in the Premier League, I mean look at their creative players, the likes of Lennon, Bale, Dembele and Dempsey. These are all players who can create quality chances. I expect Spurs to create more clear cut chances as the squad grows into AVB’s team. 

And to finish off, here's a pie chart showing how much or how little clear cut chances the Premier League sides have created.

 

(Stats from EPL Index, Date stats taken: 18/12/12 ) 

The Tale of Five Expensive Strikers

The 2011 January transfer saw a record £225 million being spent in the Premier League in a single month. Normally, the January transfer window is viewed as a quiet window, due to clubs being unwilling sanction big moves. But January 2011 proved to be contrary to that line of thought.

There were five fantastic strikers who were brought in January. Fernando Torres, Andy Carroll, Edin Dzeko, Luis Suarez and Darren Bent. Each of these five strikers cost their new clubs more than £20million.

Furthermore, the five strikers have a combined value of £152.8million. You would have to say, it’s a very expensive 5 aside team!

The massive sums being splashed on these players quite obviously mean that all five players are massive signings. Their new fans and clubs should quite rightly expect big things from these centre forwards.

But how have they fared in their first 5 months of their new job?

Here are the stats for the fantastic five.

Name	Transfer Fee	Total Appearances	Total Goals	PL (Premier League )apps	PL goals	PL assists	PL shots per game	Goals per game ratio
Fernando Torres	£50mill	18	1	14	1	2	1.1	0.05
Edin Dzeko	£27 mill	21	6	15	2	2	1.5	0.28
Darren Bent	£18 mill potential £24mill	16	9	16	9	1	1.7	0.56
Andy Carroll	£35mill	9	2	7	2	0	1.9	0.22
Luis Suarez	£22.8mill	13	4	13	4	3	3.6	0.30
Total	£152.8	77	22	65	18	8

To many observers of the game, these stats aren’t inspiring, especially when you consider the huge sums spent on these players.

It’s evident, Darren Bent has scored the most goals, by far. Nine goals in sixteen games is a pretty impressive record. He clearly has settled in at Aston Villa very smoothly and his goal record already proves this.

Some argue, Bent’s Villa goal scoring record is something which should be expected. Seeing as he has consistently proved he can score in the Premier League. However rather ironically, the most expensive Premier League player, Fernando Torres has only scored once for Chelsea. This is a horrifying statistic. The principle that Torres was signed for £50 million and has only conjured one goal in 5 months is incredibly alarming.

Edin Dzeko’s goal return has been satisfying. Six goals in twenty-one games isn’t terrible. But, his form in the Premier League paints a distressing picture. In 15 appearances, Dzeko has managed just two goals.

For a man who has cost Man City £27 million, one would expect a few more goals. Especially, since the player has an impeccable goal scoring record. Prior to his move to City, the Bosnian scored 10 league goals for Wolfsburg this season.

However, it’s fair to say Edin Dzeko needs time. After all, this is his first time playing in the Premier League. He is still adapting to the technical and physical demands of the English League.

When considering Dzeko’s appearances, he has played the most games in comparison to any of the other strikers analysed. The reason for this is pretty logical. This is firstly because the Bosnian striker joined Man City at the start of January. While the other four strikers were signed towards the end of the month.

Coming back to appearances, Dzeko made 15 Premier League appearances. 8 of those appearances have been from off the bench. Perhaps this shows how Dzeko has failed to settle into Man City so far.

After all, one would expect a 27 million pound centre forward to start most of the games for their new club. Dzeko’s failure in getting starts for Man City could suggest that buying big players in January isn’t a good idea. The player, like in the case of Dzeko could fail to adapt to the environment of the new league. Or perhaps internally, the player could struggle to truly understand the teams strategy or their role in the team. The same hypothesis could be followed when considering the form of Andy Carroll and Fernando Torres.

The player who appeared the least amount of times is Andy Carroll. The £35million man has only appeared 9 times for Liverpool. This is a serious worry for the Liverpool fans. Especially when considering he is the clubs’record signing. The fans quite rightly, want him to contribute heavily on the pitch, rather than spending most of his time on the sidelines. Furthermore, three of the player’s analysed, they have played double the amount that Carroll has for Liverpool. Next season Andy Carroll will have to prove that he is not an injury prone player and he has to justify his massive price tag.

While Andy Carroll’s strike partner, Luis Suarez has the best assist record in comparison to all the strikers analysed. In thirteen appearances, he has set up three goals. This record is reasonably satisfying. After all, this is the player’s first experience in the Premier League. There is no doubt Suarez has settled very quickly into England and Liverpool. His tenacious style has enlightened and energised the kop. This is backed up by Suarez having the most shots per game. On this basis, one could argue, the Uruguayan is perhaps the most threatening striker out of the five analysed.

The 6ft 4 Edin Dzeko has only assisted twice for Man City. The principle, Dzeko’s game is based on the Bosnian’s physicality, one would expect him to assist more. Especially as the player is relatively decent in the air and can creatively pass. The same could also be stated about Andy Carroll. The England international has completely failed to assist for Liverpool. However, this could be because if a player is to regularly assist, he needs to be settled in the starting 11. This is something that both Dzeko and Carroll have failed to achieve.

Along with Edin Dzeko and Andy Carroll, it’s clear the jury is still out for all the five strikers. Of course, Darren Bent and Luis Suarez have had satisfying starts to their new clubs. But more will be expected from all the strikers next season. Each club will demand a consistent goal flow from each striker, especially since the clubs have dug deep to sign them.

The statistics for the five strikers do not light up the screen. But a complete pre-season with their respected clubs will further enhance their bodies and mind for the demands of the Premier League. One should expect all the strikers performances to further improve and for the player to look far more settled.

There is one certainty which lies ahead of the new season, the levels of expectations will dramatically rise next season. All the strikers will have to perform and contribute consistently next season. The excuse of ‘settling into the team’ will no longer be accepted. All five strikers will have to prove their moneys worth.

A mere 22 goals from men who have a combined value of £152.8 million is hardly justifiable. But, the statistics could be proof that signing big players in January isn’t a good idea. As it gives no time for the players to develop an intuition of their new teams theories and strategies. This then leads to the players such as Torres, Dzeko and Carroll to initially fail to live up to expectations placed on them.

Indeed, all five men will have to truly justify their value next season.

Things you may like to read

Why the signing of Andy Carroll is a fatal error for Liverpool

Edin Dzeko – How will he fit into Manchester City’s catalogue of players

How will Chelsea shape up, now Fernando Torres has arrived