Post European Game Syndrome

There is often an argument that after European games, teams tend to struggle to get the three points in their next game. Some argue that it’s due to the lack of preparation time, or the lack of quality in depth or even the lack of fitness. I myself have always thought that it was something along those lines too. 

Now, of course, there needs to be a degree of rationality and a consideration of the wider perspective.
Think about it, often teams can play poorly, yet still walk away with a win. So there is an argument that when people say a team isn’t as efficient or effective after a European game, they could mean in terms of performances, not the result. 

However, I wanted to see how each side that represented the Premier League in Europe this season faired in comparison to each other. 

However, before I point out my observations, we have to consider a few things. Firstly, we have to recognise some teams played more games after a European game, due to their progress in Europe. In order to combat this, I have added the points per game stat. 

Table: Premier League sides representing in Europe: Their record after European Games

Key Observations

·         Business as usual for Manchester United: After European games, Man United have been machine efficient. United won 7 of their 8 post European games which clearly demonstrates this. Perhaps Sir Alex Ferguson’s effective rotation and strength in depth played a key role in Man United’s consistency.

·         Arsenal unbeaten after European games: Both Arsenal and Man United are unbeaten after their European games. But considering this from Arsenal’s perspective, it shows how difficult they are to beat. Their experience and knowhow through many years of having to manage the Champions League and the Premier League is one of the reasons why they remained unbeaten.

·         Man City distinctly average after European games: Man City’s record is pretty average, to be fair. Although they only lost once and conceded the least out of the teams analysed (5), I think they should have done better. But Man City will argue, they had tough games after their Champions League duties, after all, they faced Liverpool away, then Arsenal at home and then Man United at home. But given the squad at Manicni’s disposal, you’d expect them to win one of those games.

·         Liverpool consistently inconsistent: Liverpool’s record after European games isn’t great. The key issue is the high number of draws, which is one of the differences from them being a top 6 side. However, what is interesting is that Liverpool kept 4 clean sheets, which is the highest (alongside Chelsea). In some respects, this shows progress is being made at Anfield, but clearly, more work needs to be done to sustain and build on it.

·         Newcastle shipping goals: Newcastle conceded 20 goals, which is an incredibly high number for a side playing in Europe and for me it symbolises their immense decline this season. Last season, Newcastle were far more solid and settled side defensively. Perhaps the club have missed Steven Taylor and Fabricio Coloccini who have missed parts of the season for one reason or another.

·         Newcastle actually doing rather well…: Although Newcastle are conceding a hell of a lot of goals, they are actually winning fair number of games too. It’s intriguing; there was strong criticism that the lack of depth effected Newcastle’s campaign this season. Although this may well be a valid point, one may need to take it with a pinch of salt. As Newcastle won 5 games from 13, this shows the club has the ability to win games even when playing on a Thursday and then on a Sunday. But it is crucial to note, all 5 of Newcastle’s wins came at home.

Martin Skrtel: The Decline

Hey guys,

It’s been a while! Due to university dominating my life, I haven’t been able to write any more woeful articles, but now, Uni is finished, I’m looking for a job and I have more time on my hand, so I’m back!

Muhahah. Suckers..

Anyway, so as the title quite clearly suggests, this article is about Martin Skrtel. 

Now, Big Martin Skrtel is an intriguing case. Last season, he was the main man for Liverpool. He was voted the clubs player of the year last season and his form earned him a new deal. The Slovakian international was also linked heavily with the likes of Man City too. 

But fast forward a year, Martin Skrtel’s stock has fallen dramatically. 

He has gone from being a certain starter for Liverpool to being a mere squad player and arguably a liability for the reds.

But why has Martin Skrtel fallen so fast? Or has his decline been something which has been overstated by fans or the media? Let’s have a look at his stats.

Red = worst, Green = Best

Ok, so, looking at the stats, it is quite clear, Martin Skrtel’s defensive stats have dramatically decreased this season. 

It is most concerning for Liverpool that the crucial defensive stats such as the ground win percentage, aerial win percentage and the defensive errors are far worse this season. But why is this the case? Why has Liverpool’s most consistent player of last season, had his form shattered this season? 

There are a number of theories behind the reason why, the likes of the guys at the Anfield Wrap and Chris Machin of The Red Men TV suggest that the constant tweaking of managers and playing styles has effected Skrtel’s confidence and has therefore unsettled him. 

This is a credible theory, over the past four seasons, Martin Skrtel has played in Rafa Benitez’ pragmatic defensive setup, then the season after, Skrtel was in a more rigid Hodgson system. While under Dalglish, things changed again. However, the most contrasting change in styles occurred this season. Liverpool under Brendan Rodgers have become a far more attacking side. 

Rodgers’ more flexible, attacking Liverpool, is a system where both full backs bomb on forward and arguably, less players are given defensive discipline. This could have had an effect on Skrtel’s game. Prior to this season, he was often given much more protection and as a unit the reds looked far more stable. This could be why Martin Skrtel has struggled this season. He is now playing in a system which demands far more from him as an individual, while he gets less protection from his team mates. 

Perhaps this makes sense, think about it, often this season, many teams have found space between the Liverpool midfield and defence lines. The consequence of this is that Skrtel and his centre back partners have more players to track from various scenarios in play. Whether it would be for example central attacks or attacks from out-wide. 

But is it all down to Martin Skrtel or Brendan Rodgers’ system? I think it’s a mix. Some argue it also comes down to personality. Rodgers has suggested on a number of occasions that the reason Jamie Carragher is in the side, is due to his marshalling and leadership skills. And the reality is some defenders thrive in the responsibility of having to defend in systems which leave them more exposed to attacking threats.

So I think the decline of Skrtel is due to him not being suited to the Rodgers demands of play. As last season demonstrated, if Liverpool were better structured defensively, and Skrtel was given more protection by the midfield, his quality would shine through. 

One major criticism of Skrtel has been his performances verses the bigger, more imposing strikers. Rodgers infamously suggested that Skrtel and Liverpool made the Oldham’s No. 9 Matt Smith look like Didier Drogba and the reality is, Liverpool and Skrtel did. 

However, I think Skrtel’s performances against the more physical strikers has always been something of a concern. Last season, in the FA Cup Final, Martin Skrtel was bullied by Didier Drogba. Drogba won most of the aerial duals and dominated the space and exploited him time after time. 

But this season, due to Skrtel being less confident and uncomfortable, these showings against the bigger strikers have stood out even more. One looks at his performances versus Villa and Southampton, against Benteke and Lambert, he struggled incredibly. 

As I’ve mentioned before, Skrtel is finding himself more exposed in this defensive setup, so his protection against these bigger more aggressive target men is much more limited. This means he is often left to sink. But there have been times, where he needs to help himself more, sometimes, the likes of Benteke and Lambert have bounced off Skrtel. 

But as the summer arrives and the imminent departure of Jamie Carragher looming, where do Liverpool go from here? Where does Martin Skrtel go from here?

Should Liverpool keep him? Should Skrtel look for a move?

For me, Liverpool should sell. The player does not look comfortable in Rodgers’ system.  

What really concerns me about Martin Skrtel is how uncomfortable he looks in the Liverpool setup. As the stats clearly suggest his awkwardness in the system has affected his defensive contribution. 

When one looks at Martin Skrtel on the ball, he appears to lack the composure, the comfort and the ease of mind to play it out from the back in a concentrated fashion. And the worst thing is, I don’t think Skrtel himself believes that he can comfortably pass it out from the back and be someone who can retain the ball, dribble past the striker to create space and have more options to pass to. 

Martin Skrtel’s decline has been staggering. I don’t think many would have expected him to be behind Jamie Carragher at the start of this season. It is clear, Skrtel is yet more proof that even defenders can struggle to adapt to particular systems. It’s unfair to label Martin Skrtel a poor defender. The reality is, he is a good defender, in the right system. Sktrel demonstrates how Liverpool are still in transition, there are still players in the side who don’t fit the Rodgers demands of playing. 

So, to conclude the three reasons why Skrtel has struggled this season:

• Liverpool less compact as a defensive unit
• Liverpool more attack orientated than defensive orientated
• Martin Skrtel’s confidence has been knocked due to being dropped and this has not been helped by him being incompatible to Rodgers style of play.

Stats Via EPL Index (Stats taken on  7/05/13)

Clear Cut Chances and the Premier League

Clear Cut chances are one of those underrated stats in football. The definition of a clear cut chance is ‘A situation where a player should reasonably be expected to score usually in a one-on-one scenario or from very close range.’ (EPL Index) So in other words, a clear cut chance is a chance where the attacker is odds on to score, it can range from a one on one finish, a unmarked headed chance or a tap in chance.

My theory is this, the more clear cut chances you create, the more goals you score, let’s see how many clear cut chances the Premier League sides have created this season.

Summary of Clear Cut Chances & Chances Created

Green =best, Red = worst

Home Clear Cut Chances

Stats via EPL Index

Away Clear Cut Chances

Clear Cut Chances and Goals Scored

My theory that the more clear cut chances you create, the more goals you score is not 100% true. The likes of Tottenham and Reading both break that line of thinking, but the stats do suggest a some connection between clear cut chances and goals scored.  

Key Points/ Observations

·         Man United creating clear cut chances in abundance: Man United have created an incredible amount of clear cut chances. This is one of the reasons why United are free scoring this season. United have created more than double the chances of around 6 Premier League sides. One must credit Sir Alex Ferguson’s ability to create sides and find players that have the understanding and tactical awareness to create good chances for their fellow team mates. It is quite clear looking at the stats, Man United create a stupendous amount of clear cut chances at home, no other Premier League side have created 20 clear cut chances at home, while United have created 26, which roughly equates to 3 clear cut chances created per home game. If Man United continue to create clear cut chances at this rate, I believe they will carry on scoring for fun this season.

·         Norwich creating an impressive amount of clear cut chances: Norwich have been on a monumental run of late, going unbeaten in their last 10 PL games. This run has been fuelled by the fact Norwich have the ability to create a decent amount of clear cut chances. A reasonable 15% of the chances Norwich have created have been clear cut. What impresses me about The Canaries, is although they do not create a whole deal of chances, the chances they do create are quality chances, which can be the difference between winning and losing games.

·         Everton have created the most chances in the Premier League: Everton being the top creators in the Premier League is no surprise to me. After all, the likes of Baines are have the fantastic ability to create chances not only in open play but from set pieces too. But Everton creating 27 clear cut chances is not bad at all, what will satisfy David Moyes the most is the a near equilibrium in the clear cut chances created home or away. 

·         Arsenal create the most clear cut chances away from home: Perhaps this comes as no surprise to some, after all, Arsenal are at their most effective when playing on the counter and away from home, they have a better chance to counter, as the opponent presses higher and plays a higher line.

·         Wigan’s poor 4 clear cut chances created away from home is an early concern: At the DW Wigan have no problem creating clear cut chances, however, on the road, it’s a different story. What surprised me was the fact, Wigan’s system is predominantly structured on counter attacking and you’d expect them to create more clear cut chances on the road, given it is more likely that there will be more space for them to exploit on the road. Furthermore, it is probable that a clear cut chance will be created when there is more space, as the marking is lax and players can be found out of position.

·         Liverpool creating chances, but not enough quality chances: Liverpool’s lack of finesse in front of goal has been widely talked about for the past 18 months. However, there have been many calls that, ‘Liverpool are one natural goal scorer away from being successful.’ I am unsure of this, although having a goal poacher would certainly see Liverpool score more goals, the quality of the chances Liverpool have created has not been great. Only 9% of Liverpool’s chances have been clear cut, there are 14 sides who have created more clear cut chances than The Reds, even though Liverpool have created the second highest amount of chances in the Premier League. If Liverpool are to improve their League standing, I feel they need to indeed their chances, but more pertinently the chances they create have to be better, therefore making it easier for the attackers to finish.

·         Aston Villa’s struggling to create at home: A few seasons ago, Villa park was something of a fortress , but a mere 4 clear cut chances being created at home is something which perhaps demonstrates this young Villa sides lack of experience and know how. Perhaps the pressure of playing in front of a big crowd is having an effect on Villa’s expressive side of their game, if you look at their away clear cut chances, its far far better, I think it is a mental aspect which is effecting this young Villa team at home.

·         Tottenham scoring comfortably, yet not created many clear cut chances: This is an odd one, one which really surprised me, prior to looking up the stats, I expected Tottenham to be up there with the teams creating the most quality chances in the Premier League, I mean look at their creative players, the likes of Lennon, Bale, Dembele and Dempsey. These are all players who can create quality chances. I expect Spurs to create more clear cut chances as the squad grows into AVB’s team. 

And to finish off, here's a pie chart showing how much or how little clear cut chances the Premier League sides have created.

 

(Stats from EPL Index, Date stats taken: 18/12/12 )