Post European Game Syndrome

There is often an argument that after European games, teams tend to struggle to get the three points in their next game. Some argue that it’s due to the lack of preparation time, or the lack of quality in depth or even the lack of fitness. I myself have always thought that it was something along those lines too. 

Now, of course, there needs to be a degree of rationality and a consideration of the wider perspective.
Think about it, often teams can play poorly, yet still walk away with a win. So there is an argument that when people say a team isn’t as efficient or effective after a European game, they could mean in terms of performances, not the result. 

However, I wanted to see how each side that represented the Premier League in Europe this season faired in comparison to each other. 

However, before I point out my observations, we have to consider a few things. Firstly, we have to recognise some teams played more games after a European game, due to their progress in Europe. In order to combat this, I have added the points per game stat. 

Table: Premier League sides representing in Europe: Their record after European Games

Key Observations

·         Business as usual for Manchester United: After European games, Man United have been machine efficient. United won 7 of their 8 post European games which clearly demonstrates this. Perhaps Sir Alex Ferguson’s effective rotation and strength in depth played a key role in Man United’s consistency.

·         Arsenal unbeaten after European games: Both Arsenal and Man United are unbeaten after their European games. But considering this from Arsenal’s perspective, it shows how difficult they are to beat. Their experience and knowhow through many years of having to manage the Champions League and the Premier League is one of the reasons why they remained unbeaten.

·         Man City distinctly average after European games: Man City’s record is pretty average, to be fair. Although they only lost once and conceded the least out of the teams analysed (5), I think they should have done better. But Man City will argue, they had tough games after their Champions League duties, after all, they faced Liverpool away, then Arsenal at home and then Man United at home. But given the squad at Manicni’s disposal, you’d expect them to win one of those games.

·         Liverpool consistently inconsistent: Liverpool’s record after European games isn’t great. The key issue is the high number of draws, which is one of the differences from them being a top 6 side. However, what is interesting is that Liverpool kept 4 clean sheets, which is the highest (alongside Chelsea). In some respects, this shows progress is being made at Anfield, but clearly, more work needs to be done to sustain and build on it.

·         Newcastle shipping goals: Newcastle conceded 20 goals, which is an incredibly high number for a side playing in Europe and for me it symbolises their immense decline this season. Last season, Newcastle were far more solid and settled side defensively. Perhaps the club have missed Steven Taylor and Fabricio Coloccini who have missed parts of the season for one reason or another.

·         Newcastle actually doing rather well…: Although Newcastle are conceding a hell of a lot of goals, they are actually winning fair number of games too. It’s intriguing; there was strong criticism that the lack of depth effected Newcastle’s campaign this season. Although this may well be a valid point, one may need to take it with a pinch of salt. As Newcastle won 5 games from 13, this shows the club has the ability to win games even when playing on a Thursday and then on a Sunday. But it is crucial to note, all 5 of Newcastle’s wins came at home.

Clear Cut Chances and the Premier League

Clear Cut chances are one of those underrated stats in football. The definition of a clear cut chance is ‘A situation where a player should reasonably be expected to score usually in a one-on-one scenario or from very close range.’ (EPL Index) So in other words, a clear cut chance is a chance where the attacker is odds on to score, it can range from a one on one finish, a unmarked headed chance or a tap in chance.

My theory is this, the more clear cut chances you create, the more goals you score, let’s see how many clear cut chances the Premier League sides have created this season.

Summary of Clear Cut Chances & Chances Created

Green =best, Red = worst

Home Clear Cut Chances

Stats via EPL Index

Away Clear Cut Chances

Clear Cut Chances and Goals Scored

My theory that the more clear cut chances you create, the more goals you score is not 100% true. The likes of Tottenham and Reading both break that line of thinking, but the stats do suggest a some connection between clear cut chances and goals scored.  

Key Points/ Observations

·         Man United creating clear cut chances in abundance: Man United have created an incredible amount of clear cut chances. This is one of the reasons why United are free scoring this season. United have created more than double the chances of around 6 Premier League sides. One must credit Sir Alex Ferguson’s ability to create sides and find players that have the understanding and tactical awareness to create good chances for their fellow team mates. It is quite clear looking at the stats, Man United create a stupendous amount of clear cut chances at home, no other Premier League side have created 20 clear cut chances at home, while United have created 26, which roughly equates to 3 clear cut chances created per home game. If Man United continue to create clear cut chances at this rate, I believe they will carry on scoring for fun this season.

·         Norwich creating an impressive amount of clear cut chances: Norwich have been on a monumental run of late, going unbeaten in their last 10 PL games. This run has been fuelled by the fact Norwich have the ability to create a decent amount of clear cut chances. A reasonable 15% of the chances Norwich have created have been clear cut. What impresses me about The Canaries, is although they do not create a whole deal of chances, the chances they do create are quality chances, which can be the difference between winning and losing games.

·         Everton have created the most chances in the Premier League: Everton being the top creators in the Premier League is no surprise to me. After all, the likes of Baines are have the fantastic ability to create chances not only in open play but from set pieces too. But Everton creating 27 clear cut chances is not bad at all, what will satisfy David Moyes the most is the a near equilibrium in the clear cut chances created home or away. 

·         Arsenal create the most clear cut chances away from home: Perhaps this comes as no surprise to some, after all, Arsenal are at their most effective when playing on the counter and away from home, they have a better chance to counter, as the opponent presses higher and plays a higher line.

·         Wigan’s poor 4 clear cut chances created away from home is an early concern: At the DW Wigan have no problem creating clear cut chances, however, on the road, it’s a different story. What surprised me was the fact, Wigan’s system is predominantly structured on counter attacking and you’d expect them to create more clear cut chances on the road, given it is more likely that there will be more space for them to exploit on the road. Furthermore, it is probable that a clear cut chance will be created when there is more space, as the marking is lax and players can be found out of position.

·         Liverpool creating chances, but not enough quality chances: Liverpool’s lack of finesse in front of goal has been widely talked about for the past 18 months. However, there have been many calls that, ‘Liverpool are one natural goal scorer away from being successful.’ I am unsure of this, although having a goal poacher would certainly see Liverpool score more goals, the quality of the chances Liverpool have created has not been great. Only 9% of Liverpool’s chances have been clear cut, there are 14 sides who have created more clear cut chances than The Reds, even though Liverpool have created the second highest amount of chances in the Premier League. If Liverpool are to improve their League standing, I feel they need to indeed their chances, but more pertinently the chances they create have to be better, therefore making it easier for the attackers to finish.

·         Aston Villa’s struggling to create at home: A few seasons ago, Villa park was something of a fortress , but a mere 4 clear cut chances being created at home is something which perhaps demonstrates this young Villa sides lack of experience and know how. Perhaps the pressure of playing in front of a big crowd is having an effect on Villa’s expressive side of their game, if you look at their away clear cut chances, its far far better, I think it is a mental aspect which is effecting this young Villa team at home.

·         Tottenham scoring comfortably, yet not created many clear cut chances: This is an odd one, one which really surprised me, prior to looking up the stats, I expected Tottenham to be up there with the teams creating the most quality chances in the Premier League, I mean look at their creative players, the likes of Lennon, Bale, Dembele and Dempsey. These are all players who can create quality chances. I expect Spurs to create more clear cut chances as the squad grows into AVB’s team. 

And to finish off, here's a pie chart showing how much or how little clear cut chances the Premier League sides have created.

 

(Stats from EPL Index, Date stats taken: 18/12/12 ) 

Just How Good is Scott Parker?

Now, if you ask 10 people who in their view is the best signing of the Premier League 2011/12 season, 3 out of the 10 people would probably say Scott Parker.

I’ve always been a bit confused by this. Firstly, I don’t think Scott Parker has been that amazing for Tottenham. Yes, he’s been very tidy and solid for Spurs. But has he really been the best signing of last season? I’m unsure, especially considering the impact Sergio Aguero had on Man City.

But let me be clear. I don’t hate Scott Parker. I do think he is a very good DM, perhaps one of the best in the Premier League. He can pass, tackle and retain the ball sensationally. While his personality makes him extremely likeable too. Parker is tenacious, determined and selfless in his pursuit to win. I just feel he is a bit overrated, that’s all.

But how does Tottenham’s Scott Parker match up with other leading defensive mids in the Premier League?

Stats via EPL Index

Defensive Stats:

Key: Green = Best, Orange= second best & Red =Worst

Without a shadow of a doubt, having fantastic defensive stats is imperative for a top class defensive mid. It kind of goes without saying. But Parker’s defensive stats, are decent. But they are by no means amazing, but they aren’t poor either.

In terms of tackles won, Parker sits right in the middle out of the players analysed. One of Parker’s strengths is his tackling and it does reflect in the stats. But he is by no means the best tackler in the Premier League. Lucas Levia had the best tackle win percentage, he won an impressive 76.47% of his tackles.  It’s interesting the player with the worse tackling win percentage is Tiote. I feel for such a solid, mobile and imposing midfielder, Tiote should be winning far more tackles. Looking at Tiote’s stats generally, they aren’t impressive. Perhaps this is why clubs such as United and Chelsea have cooled off interest in the £20million rated man.

One of the parts of Parker’s game which I feel is often underrated is his reading of the game. If you watch him closely, you can tell he read the game very astutely.  Parker may look like a bull in a china shop, but I feel he often gets away with this thanks to his good understanding of the game. He can roam out of position, pick up the ball and move it on for his team within a matter of seconds. Parker made the most interceptions out of the players analysed, by quite a bit too. What I find intriguing is that the top three interceptors are the English lads, Parker, Carrick and Barry. This little stat tell us, that in certain positions, English players really do understand their role and do have a football understanding. Sometimes English players are portrayed as clueless footballers whose best abilities are their courage.

One defensive area where Parker lags behind is aerial duals. The other defensive mids are far comfortable in winning balls in the air.  But there are other aspects to Parker’s defensive games which isn’t that great either. Parker has made the most defensive errors out of the players analysed, this correlates with the number of times he has been disposed too. The number of times Parker has been dispossessed has surprised me. I always felt one of the strengths of Parker’s game was his ability to retain the ball, but obviously, he is either spending too long on the ball or opposition are closing him down quickly as they know he’s not the fastest nor the most agile of players. But what’s incredibly impressive is how Gareth Barry, in 34 games was only been dispossessed 17 times. Faurlin only played 20 times, yet he lost the ball nearly double the amount of the Man City man. Barry may not be everyone’s favourite footballer (to hell, no one really likes him), but he certainly is very tidy and does the job in a disciplined manner.

Attacking and Passing

Now, the attacking abilities of a defensive mid are not that vital as say as a winger, striker or an attacking midfielder. But, it does give an indication on how well rounded the player is and how influential he is.

In terms of passing, Scott Parker has seen a lot of the ball. It does show how influential he has been for Spurs. But, what I find more interesting is the accuracy of Parker’s passing, the England international’s pass accuracy was 90%. It was the best alongside United’s Michael Carrick. Without a doubt one of the strengths of Parker’s game is his ability to pass accurately. This is of course, is very vital if you’re a defensive midfielder, as one of your roles is to link the defence to the midfield.

Parker v Rest

Parker v Sandro

Key- Green = Best, Red = Worse

Now, this is an intriguing comparison, due to both playing for Spurs and both being defensive midfielders. By the end of the season, Redknapp often played both players, but Sandro was utilised in a more defensive role than Parker. But looking at the defensive stats, Sandro dominates Parker. The Brazilian has a better Aerial win percentage, a better ground dual percentage and a better tackle percentage too. But both players seem to have a weakness in retaining the ball. This maybe a concern to Spurs, as losing the ball in the central areas of the pitch, is catastrophic especially with Spurs being a dynamic attacking side. For me, Sandro looks the more comfortable in defensive mid, he has the ability to not only keep it simple, but he does the basics well enough.

Parker v English Lads

This is a hard one. Parker, Barry and Carrick are players of very different styles. In some respects, one of the three (Carrick ) is arguably England’s best passer, while another (Barry) is probably England’s best keep it simple player and the other one, Parker is probably the most comfortable in attacking and defending.

From a creative and passing perspective, Carrick edges Barry and Parker. Carrick made the most passes and had the best pass accuracy. From a defensive perspective, it’s very close again too. But looking at the stats, I feel Carrick is the most comfortable defensively. Out of the three, he had the best win percentage for aerial duals, ground duals and came second best for interceptions. Carrick may not be the most dominating of midfielders, but for me he’s more rounded than Barry and Parker. Some may argue, Carrick isn’t a defensive mid, I firmly believe he is. Of course, he isn’t a typical defensive midfielder. He is one, like Parker, who joins attacks when the momentum is with his side. It does surprise me how Carrick is under used by England.  If England are really determined to keep the ball, Carrick must be utilised. He is someone who keeps things ticking in midfield, and off the ball he can win his fair share of duals too. But with the same token I can see why England managers have chosen Barry and Parker. Both lads add reliability, grit and drive to England. Look at Barry, he rarely loses the ball. While Parker, reads the game sensationally well, something that is crucial for international football.

Conclusion

Image via WhoScored

So, just how good is Scott Parker?

Well, he certainly is a good footballer. He is a player most teams wouldn’t mind having knocking about. But is he the best defensive midfielder in the Premier League?

The answer to that is no.

In my eyes and in the eyes of the stats, he isn’t even the best English defensive midfielder either. One could easily argue, Barry or Carrick are better defensive midfielders. If had to choose between the three, I would pick Carrick.

The reason why Parker is rated, respected and admired so highly is because of his style of play. He is tireless, determined and visibly hungry to win, not only that he has got some good technical abilities.

I think Scott Parker is a top defensive midfielder, but he is by no means the best in the Premier League.

But that leads me to the question, who is the best defensive mid in the Premier League? For me, (and again like most things, it comes down to personal taste) I think Lucas Levia is the best defensive mid in the Premier League. As the stats show, he is the most well rounded and I feel his linking up play is fantastic too.

While for Scott Parker, he is proof that, you are never too old to fulfil your potential. I feel some of the hype towards Parker is over the top. I think he is a good footballer, but by no means the best defensive midfielder in the Premier League. The UK press and fans probably love him, as he typifies the idyllic English player. He is courageous, selfless and passionate. But the reality is, he just another good defensive midfielder in the Premier League.