Post European Game Syndrome

There is often an argument that after European games, teams tend to struggle to get the three points in their next game. Some argue that it’s due to the lack of preparation time, or the lack of quality in depth or even the lack of fitness. I myself have always thought that it was something along those lines too. 

Now, of course, there needs to be a degree of rationality and a consideration of the wider perspective.
Think about it, often teams can play poorly, yet still walk away with a win. So there is an argument that when people say a team isn’t as efficient or effective after a European game, they could mean in terms of performances, not the result. 

However, I wanted to see how each side that represented the Premier League in Europe this season faired in comparison to each other. 

However, before I point out my observations, we have to consider a few things. Firstly, we have to recognise some teams played more games after a European game, due to their progress in Europe. In order to combat this, I have added the points per game stat. 

Table: Premier League sides representing in Europe: Their record after European Games

Key Observations

·         Business as usual for Manchester United: After European games, Man United have been machine efficient. United won 7 of their 8 post European games which clearly demonstrates this. Perhaps Sir Alex Ferguson’s effective rotation and strength in depth played a key role in Man United’s consistency.

·         Arsenal unbeaten after European games: Both Arsenal and Man United are unbeaten after their European games. But considering this from Arsenal’s perspective, it shows how difficult they are to beat. Their experience and knowhow through many years of having to manage the Champions League and the Premier League is one of the reasons why they remained unbeaten.

·         Man City distinctly average after European games: Man City’s record is pretty average, to be fair. Although they only lost once and conceded the least out of the teams analysed (5), I think they should have done better. But Man City will argue, they had tough games after their Champions League duties, after all, they faced Liverpool away, then Arsenal at home and then Man United at home. But given the squad at Manicni’s disposal, you’d expect them to win one of those games.

·         Liverpool consistently inconsistent: Liverpool’s record after European games isn’t great. The key issue is the high number of draws, which is one of the differences from them being a top 6 side. However, what is interesting is that Liverpool kept 4 clean sheets, which is the highest (alongside Chelsea). In some respects, this shows progress is being made at Anfield, but clearly, more work needs to be done to sustain and build on it.

·         Newcastle shipping goals: Newcastle conceded 20 goals, which is an incredibly high number for a side playing in Europe and for me it symbolises their immense decline this season. Last season, Newcastle were far more solid and settled side defensively. Perhaps the club have missed Steven Taylor and Fabricio Coloccini who have missed parts of the season for one reason or another.

·         Newcastle actually doing rather well…: Although Newcastle are conceding a hell of a lot of goals, they are actually winning fair number of games too. It’s intriguing; there was strong criticism that the lack of depth effected Newcastle’s campaign this season. Although this may well be a valid point, one may need to take it with a pinch of salt. As Newcastle won 5 games from 13, this shows the club has the ability to win games even when playing on a Thursday and then on a Sunday. But it is crucial to note, all 5 of Newcastle’s wins came at home.

Clear Cut Chances and the Premier League

Clear Cut chances are one of those underrated stats in football. The definition of a clear cut chance is ‘A situation where a player should reasonably be expected to score usually in a one-on-one scenario or from very close range.’ (EPL Index) So in other words, a clear cut chance is a chance where the attacker is odds on to score, it can range from a one on one finish, a unmarked headed chance or a tap in chance.

My theory is this, the more clear cut chances you create, the more goals you score, let’s see how many clear cut chances the Premier League sides have created this season.

Summary of Clear Cut Chances & Chances Created

Green =best, Red = worst

Home Clear Cut Chances

Stats via EPL Index

Away Clear Cut Chances

Clear Cut Chances and Goals Scored

My theory that the more clear cut chances you create, the more goals you score is not 100% true. The likes of Tottenham and Reading both break that line of thinking, but the stats do suggest a some connection between clear cut chances and goals scored.  

Key Points/ Observations

·         Man United creating clear cut chances in abundance: Man United have created an incredible amount of clear cut chances. This is one of the reasons why United are free scoring this season. United have created more than double the chances of around 6 Premier League sides. One must credit Sir Alex Ferguson’s ability to create sides and find players that have the understanding and tactical awareness to create good chances for their fellow team mates. It is quite clear looking at the stats, Man United create a stupendous amount of clear cut chances at home, no other Premier League side have created 20 clear cut chances at home, while United have created 26, which roughly equates to 3 clear cut chances created per home game. If Man United continue to create clear cut chances at this rate, I believe they will carry on scoring for fun this season.

·         Norwich creating an impressive amount of clear cut chances: Norwich have been on a monumental run of late, going unbeaten in their last 10 PL games. This run has been fuelled by the fact Norwich have the ability to create a decent amount of clear cut chances. A reasonable 15% of the chances Norwich have created have been clear cut. What impresses me about The Canaries, is although they do not create a whole deal of chances, the chances they do create are quality chances, which can be the difference between winning and losing games.

·         Everton have created the most chances in the Premier League: Everton being the top creators in the Premier League is no surprise to me. After all, the likes of Baines are have the fantastic ability to create chances not only in open play but from set pieces too. But Everton creating 27 clear cut chances is not bad at all, what will satisfy David Moyes the most is the a near equilibrium in the clear cut chances created home or away. 

·         Arsenal create the most clear cut chances away from home: Perhaps this comes as no surprise to some, after all, Arsenal are at their most effective when playing on the counter and away from home, they have a better chance to counter, as the opponent presses higher and plays a higher line.

·         Wigan’s poor 4 clear cut chances created away from home is an early concern: At the DW Wigan have no problem creating clear cut chances, however, on the road, it’s a different story. What surprised me was the fact, Wigan’s system is predominantly structured on counter attacking and you’d expect them to create more clear cut chances on the road, given it is more likely that there will be more space for them to exploit on the road. Furthermore, it is probable that a clear cut chance will be created when there is more space, as the marking is lax and players can be found out of position.

·         Liverpool creating chances, but not enough quality chances: Liverpool’s lack of finesse in front of goal has been widely talked about for the past 18 months. However, there have been many calls that, ‘Liverpool are one natural goal scorer away from being successful.’ I am unsure of this, although having a goal poacher would certainly see Liverpool score more goals, the quality of the chances Liverpool have created has not been great. Only 9% of Liverpool’s chances have been clear cut, there are 14 sides who have created more clear cut chances than The Reds, even though Liverpool have created the second highest amount of chances in the Premier League. If Liverpool are to improve their League standing, I feel they need to indeed their chances, but more pertinently the chances they create have to be better, therefore making it easier for the attackers to finish.

·         Aston Villa’s struggling to create at home: A few seasons ago, Villa park was something of a fortress , but a mere 4 clear cut chances being created at home is something which perhaps demonstrates this young Villa sides lack of experience and know how. Perhaps the pressure of playing in front of a big crowd is having an effect on Villa’s expressive side of their game, if you look at their away clear cut chances, its far far better, I think it is a mental aspect which is effecting this young Villa team at home.

·         Tottenham scoring comfortably, yet not created many clear cut chances: This is an odd one, one which really surprised me, prior to looking up the stats, I expected Tottenham to be up there with the teams creating the most quality chances in the Premier League, I mean look at their creative players, the likes of Lennon, Bale, Dembele and Dempsey. These are all players who can create quality chances. I expect Spurs to create more clear cut chances as the squad grows into AVB’s team. 

And to finish off, here's a pie chart showing how much or how little clear cut chances the Premier League sides have created.

 

(Stats from EPL Index, Date stats taken: 18/12/12 ) 

Stats: Premier League and Penalties

So, it's been a bit too long since I have made a post on here, apologies, I have been busy with life. But since I have had some free time, I have made a few graphs analysing the penalties in the Premier League. So go on, take a little look. Penalties have been discussed quite a bit in recent times, ahead of the Manchester Derby, Sir Alex Ferguson questioned the number of penalties Man City had been awarded at home, while Liverpool fans have been annoyed by the lack of penalties they have received this season.

Overview

Penalties sorted from the highest awarded to the least.

Penalties at Home

So in the next digram below, we show the number of penalties scored at home and their conversion percentage.

Penalties away

Again, same thing as home, but this time away from home.

Penalty Scorers

The players who have scored from the spot this season and the number they have scored via penalties.

So, what are your thoughts on this guys? Feel free to comment or tweet me @ReviewFootball.

Stats taken on 11/12/2012 - After 16 PL games, stats do not take into consideration Sunderland - Reading, played on the same date as stats collected.

Premier League Top four XI: 11/12 season

This article is a bit late. No wait, it’s hideously late. But I was bored and I’ve always wanted to make a top four XI, especially considering I did a relegation XI.

But doing a top four XI is tough and controversial. On one hand there is no Chelsea, as they didn’t finish in the top four. But on the other hand the Blues have only gone and won the Champions League, so you ask yourself do I consider the Chelsea players or do I leave them out?

These are the questions that keep me awake at night..

Well, for the sake of the challenge, I have decided to keep Chelsea out of it. Now Chelsea fans, don’t be hurt, I have done this as I wanted it to literally be the Top Four XI.

Here we go,

Goalkeeper

Green =best, Red = worst

For me, the keepers argument is quite simple. It’s gotta be Joe Hart hasn’t it? He is the man, he makes goalkeeping look cool.

But in terms of football, he has been fantastic. Hart is incredibly well rounded, focused and often saves his team’s bacon countless of times.

But what impresses me about Hart is his leadership and organisational skills. He really settles and calms Man City’s backline, the understanding between him and his defenders is fantastic and is visible to anyone who watches City.

Right Back:

Again, this area is relatively straight forward for me. Although he didn’t feature as much as expected last season, I do feel Bacary Sagna is the best right back in the Premier League. A few months ago, I did an analysis on right backs here. And Sagna dominated over a number of leading right backs in the Premier League.

Sagna offers something many full backs crave, and that’s balance, in terms of offensive duties and defensive duties. Sagna’s great positioning and reading of the game allows him to roam forward and defend adequately.

Centre Backs:

Stats via EPL Index

 This is tough, probably because most of the top four have very gifted centre backs.

Looking at the stats, im going for Vincent Kompany and Joleon Lescott. Now, I know it’s dead boring and is a bit like someone having the chance to pick anything to have for dinner and they go for the old routine of bangers and mash. But these two are pretty good and cover a lot of bases.

Kompany is arguably the best centre back in the Premier League. He dominates his opponents; he wins most of his tackles and reads the game very well. While with Lescott, we have a left sided centre back, who is a tackling specialist. Lescott is dominant in the air too.

Left Back:

This is an interesting one to call. If Chelsea made the top four, Ashley Cole would certainly be up there. But even so, it’s still a hard question. A few months ago, I also did an analysis on some left backs in the Premier League, and Gael Clichy really impressed me. Like his former Arsenal team-mate Sagna, Clichy is well rounded in regards to his offensive and defensive work. But my one issue with Clichy is that he doesn’t play as many games as he really should at Man City. Perhaps that’s due to Mancini..being well, Mancini. It’s quite clear, Roberto loves to shuffle his full backs. But, I love the balance Clichy brings at full back. He defends well, and support attacks pretty effectively too.

Defensive midfield:

The Premier League is actually blessed with some very talented defensive midfielders.

Looking at the stats, it’s hard. It’s like choosing a chocolate from a Celebrations tin. There are too many tasty, yet different types of defensive midfielders. But I will go for Mikel Arteta. His passing, composure and ball retention is absolutely key in that role.  Furthermore, his tackling isn’t that bad either. The Spaniard is a resilient leader who really gets his teams to tick and can often dictate the tempo of games. Something which I feel Carrick, Parker and Barry struggle to do.

Midfielders:

Comparison of the deeper lying central midfielders

Yaya Toure has to be in this side, without a doubt. One could easily argue, Toure is the best box to box midfielder in the world. Toure has the characteristics to dominate games and he’s proven time and time again he is the man who can make the difference for Man City. One of the things I admire about Toure is his vision and passing abilities, they compliment physicality and the dominant stature he has. 

Comparison of the play makers in the top four

 Toure’s partner in this midfield is no other than the great Luka Modric. I feel both players would link well together. Modric’s movement and passing range would bring a slickness and fluidity the side. While Toure’s physicality would give the side a bit of drive.

Attacking Left

David Silva – He has got to be in the team hasn’t he? David Silva is like the bread of a sandwich, he is the one who completes the team. He is the one gives the team texture. David Silva’s quick feet, agile style and his creativity make him imperative for this team. The Spaniard is class, he makes creating chances look like a simple task.

David Silva is silent, but deadly.

  

Attacking Right:

Seeing there are so many quality strikers and wingers in the Premier League, it’s hard to pick someone, over another talented player. As you can go with someone like Nani, and think, ‘yeah, he’s a good player.’ Then later you may ponder, what about Bale, his directness, assertiveness and powerful left foot makes him a must have.

But, for the attacking right position, I am going for Robin Van Persie.

Van Persie is awesome. And let’s be under no allusions, he is a complete striker. He has wonderful feet, great variation in his finishing and can create chances for his team mates too. Van Persie proved last season, if he can stay injury free, he can score for absolute fun. He really can. His positioning, composure and decision making is first class.

Centre Forward:

Originally, I wanted to compare Aguero, Rooney and Van Persie to each other, but I liked them so much I wanted them all in the team. It was a bit self indulgent of me, it’s like finishing that whole box of celebrations by myself.

But I have gone for Sergio Aguero up front. This man is sensational. I think his price tag has made people not recognise how crucial he was last season for Man City. People forget, he joined the club aged 22. In his debut season in English football, he scored an impressive 23 league goals. And if you watched him with Man City, he was fully embedded into the side. His understanding and vision of the game was complimented by his City team mates. Aguero himself bagged 8 assists too, a symbol of his cohesion in the team. One aspect of Aguero’s game which impressed me was his physicality. Although he may not be the biggest player, he certainly stood his ground and led the City line very effectively.

So here's how the team would look on paper.

 

(Stats from EPL Index, taken from the 2011/12 season)