To be perfectly honest, Demba Ba has been the best free
transfer signing of this season. The
former Hammers man has scored 16 Premier League goals this term, with 8 coming
at home and the other 8 of course coming on the road.
During December, it was perfectly arguable to say Demba Ba
was the best signing of the summer. And it was merely stating the obvious that
Demba Ba was one of the finest strikers in the Premier League. After all, he
was scoring for fun. But when his international team mate Papiss Cisse joined,
everyone thought Newcastle now had
two brilliant strikers, meaning double the goal action for Newcastle
faithful.
But things haven’t worked out exactly like that.
Indeed, Papiss Cisse has hit the ground running in emphatic
fashion. I mean 13 goals in 13 games in the Premier League is unbelievable,
especially considering its his first few months in the division too. And if you’ve seen his recent goals, most of
them are just incredible, some of them are worldie efforts.
But the partnership between Cisse and Ba hasn’t worked out completely
to plan. And it’s had its most devasting effect on Ba. In fact, whenever the
two have started a game Ba has failed to score in all of those games.
But why is this the case?
To find out, we’ve taken Ba’s stats from when he was in lethal
form playing in the middle as the main man at Newcastle
(so stats from August to January). And we’ve also taken his stats from when
Cisse joined the club (February till May).
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| Stats via EPL Index |
It’s key to note, one of the first things Pardew did to facilitate
Cisse was to shift Ba to a more left sided role, as opposed to playing them both up top. However, the strikers would often swap roles during
games. But recently, Ba has occasionally gone up top with Cisse in certain
periods of matches. And when this has happened, Ba has looked far more potent,
especially if one looks at his final two games against City and Everton.
Starting off with Ba’s shots stats, the Newcastle’s
number 19 went from 60 attempts on goal, to 49. The decline in shots, could show Ba struggling
to get into the key positions or his favourable positions to attempt to score.
But the most alarming stat, which further indicates this is Ba’s shots on target
record. Prior to the arrival of Cisse, Ba had 30 shots on target, by the end of
the season, Ba managed exactly half of that. Furthermore, since playing from the left hand
side, Ba has had more shots blocked too.
This could indicate defenders are more capable of nullifying Ba’s threat
from the left hand, thus restricting his effect
on the game.
Ba’s move to the left handside has seen his shot accuracy decline
rather drastically. From the start of the season to January, Ba had a 63% shot
accuracy. While by the end of the season, it was at 45%. For me, this symbolises
just how Ba has struggled to get into his favourable positions to be at his
most clinical sharpness.
Diagram of Ba goal placements:
If you look at Ba’s goals placements,
most have been placed in the bottom left hand side. This to an extent,
reinstates, why Ba has struggled to score in the second half of the season.
Ba’s move to a more deeper left sided role has meant he has struggled to get into his most natural and instinctive position to find the net. After all, if he's playing in a more left sided role, his chances of scoring via the bottom left hand corner are limited, due to his aim being narrowed by his initial position.
To many, Ba hasn’t done a brilliant job in his new role at Newcastle.
You can see their point. I mean he has been anonymous since Cisse has joined.
But what’s interesting is that in his deeper role, the Newcastle
number 19 has won more aerial duals and won more tackles and he has also seen
more of the ball too, as suggested by the number of passes he’s made. As much
as this shows Ba getting involved in the nitty gritty of the game, Ba has
struggled to actually create sufficient chances for his team mates, especially
for Cisse. In his deeper role, Ba created just 10 chances, assisting once. But
on the same token, when Ba was leading the line he assisted just once again and
in fact created fewer chances (9). It’s transparent this is a feature of Ba’s game
which he has to improve on. Ba as a target man or as a deep forward, he must
be more effective in creating chances for his team mates.
But what’s interesting is that in his deeper role, Ba has made less final third passes and he has
also attempted less crosses. For me, this along with the drought of goals and
the lack of chances created it suggests two things. It firstly suggests Ba has
not fully understood his new role in the Newcastle
side, hence his anonymity in the second half of the season. Or it could highlight Ba is not comfortable in
the role, which would probably explain why he’s been on such dramatic goal
drought this season.
For me, it’s a mixture of not understanding his new role and
not being comfortable in it. As Demba Ba is a man who played in the right
position can score for fun. Ba knows this himself more than anyone and one
could argue, it’s taken its toll on his confidence.
Now, with statistics, it’s hard to measure up confidence.
Actually its impossible. But there are a few indicators. The clear chance
conversion rate gives a decent indicator. Ba went from 62% to nearly half of
that by the end of the season. Normally, Ba’s clear cut chance conversion should
have stayed around 62- 50%, but the big decline shows Ba has lost that spark
and confidence he once had in front of goal.
But the most devastating and most alarming stat is his
conversion rate. Prior to Cisse’s arrival, Ba had a chance conversion of 33%
and now that stat is down to 3%. That’s a huge decline of huge proportions. It
demonstrates just how the confidence has been drained out of the player, and it hasn’t been helped by him being played out of his favourable position. The few goals scored, the clear cut conversion
and chance conversion rate worryingly indicate, Ba is not only out of form but it could suggest the player is suffering from fatigue too. One must
recall Ba also played in the African Cup of Nations in January, granted it was
for a very short amount of time, but the travelling and climate changes could
have taken its toll on his body.
Demba Ba has declined severely since January. The player
looks uncomfortable in his new position and he seems bankrupt of confidence. It
is crucial in the summer, Pardew devises a plan to finally get the best out Ba
again. The Newcastle boss may need to redefine the role for Ba, thus attempting
give Ba a better understanding of how he wants him to play in the position
behind Cisse. But Ba himself must take a good break in the summer and come back
in pre-season with the determination to rediscover his goal scoring touch and
adapt to the role Pardew has set him.
However, I believe in order for Cisse and Ba to both be
effective. Newcastle may have to do a Chelsea.
Newcastle may well have to play one
or the other, as opposed to starting them both. Just like Chelsea have done to facilitate Torres and Drogba. As it’s clear both
players are at their most lethal when leading the line.
Furthermore, with the Europa League to contend next season, it can’t
be expected Ba and Cisse can both start all of Newcastle’s
games. If the duo are rotated, it could lead to Newcastle
having an eye for goal not only in the Premier League but in Europe
too.
But so far, Ba’s new role at Newcastle
demonstrates he is a player who is uncomfortable in the position he is
playing in. It is crucial Newcastle
and Ba get back to the drawing board and find a way to get him and
Cisse singing off the same hymn sheet.
(Stats from EPL Index)
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