Why is Demba Ba firing Blanks for Newcastle?

To be perfectly honest, Demba Ba has been the best free transfer signing of this season. The former Hammers man has scored 16 Premier League goals this term, with 8 coming at home and the other 8 of course coming on the road.

During December, it was perfectly arguable to say Demba Ba was the best signing of the summer. And it was merely stating the obvious that Demba Ba was one of the finest strikers in the Premier League. After all, he was scoring for fun. But when his international team mate Papiss Cisse joined, everyone thought Newcastle now had two brilliant strikers, meaning double the goal action for Newcastle faithful.

But things haven’t worked out exactly like that. 

Indeed, Papiss Cisse has hit the ground running in emphatic fashion. I mean 13 goals in 13 games in the Premier League is unbelievable, especially considering its his first few months in the division too.  And if you’ve seen his recent goals, most of them are just incredible, some of them are worldie efforts. 

But the partnership between Cisse and Ba hasn’t worked out completely to plan. And it’s had its most devasting effect on Ba. In fact, whenever the two have started a game Ba has failed to score in all of those games. 

But why is this the case?

To find out, we’ve taken Ba’s stats from when he was in lethal form playing in the middle as the main man at Newcastle (so stats from August to January). And we’ve also taken his stats from when Cisse joined the club (February till May).

Stats via EPL Index

It’s key to note, one of the first things Pardew did to facilitate Cisse was to shift Ba to a more left sided role, as opposed to playing them both up top. However, the strikers would often swap roles during games. But recently, Ba has occasionally gone up top with Cisse in certain periods of matches. And when this has happened, Ba has looked far more potent, especially if one looks at his final two games against City and Everton. 

Starting off with Ba’s shots stats, the Newcastle’s number 19 went from 60 attempts on goal, to 49.  The decline in shots, could show Ba struggling to get into the key positions or his favourable positions to attempt to score. But the most alarming stat, which further indicates this is Ba’s shots on target record. Prior to the arrival of Cisse, Ba had 30 shots on target, by the end of the season, Ba managed exactly half of that.  Furthermore, since playing from the left hand side, Ba has had more shots blocked too.  This could indicate defenders are more capable of nullifying Ba’s threat from the left hand, thus restricting his effect on the game.  

Ba’s move to the left handside has seen his shot accuracy decline rather drastically. From the start of the season to January, Ba had a 63% shot accuracy. While by the end of the season, it was at 45%. For me, this symbolises just how Ba has struggled to get into his favourable positions to be at his most clinical sharpness.

Diagram of Ba goal placements:

If you look at Ba’s goals placements, most have been placed in the bottom left hand side. This to an extent, reinstates, why Ba has struggled to score in the second half of the season. Ba’s move to a more deeper left sided role has meant he has struggled to get into his most natural and instinctive position to find the net.  After all, if he's playing in a more left sided role, his chances of scoring via the bottom left hand corner are limited, due to his aim being narrowed by his initial position.

To many, Ba hasn’t done a brilliant job in his new role at Newcastle. You can see their point. I mean he has been anonymous since Cisse has joined. But what’s interesting is that in his deeper role, the Newcastle number 19 has won more aerial duals and won more tackles and he has also seen more of the ball too, as suggested by the number of passes he’s made. As much as this shows Ba getting involved in the nitty gritty of the game, Ba has struggled to actually create sufficient chances for his team mates, especially for Cisse. In his deeper role, Ba created just 10 chances, assisting once. But on the same token, when Ba was leading the line he assisted just once again and in fact created fewer chances (9). It’s transparent this is a feature of Ba’s game which he has to improve on. Ba as a target man or as a deep forward, he must be more effective in creating chances for his team mates. 

But what’s interesting is that in his deeper role,  Ba has made less final third passes and he has also attempted less crosses. For me, this along with the drought of goals and the lack of chances created it suggests two things. It firstly suggests Ba has not fully understood his new role in the Newcastle side, hence his anonymity in the second half of the season.  Or it could highlight Ba is not comfortable in the role, which would probably explain why he’s been on such dramatic goal drought this season.

For me, it’s a mixture of not understanding his new role and not being comfortable in it. As Demba Ba is a man who played in the right position can score for fun. Ba knows this himself more than anyone and one could argue, it’s taken its toll on his confidence. 

Now, with statistics, it’s hard to measure up confidence. Actually its impossible. But there are a few indicators. The clear chance conversion rate gives a decent indicator. Ba went from 62% to nearly half of that by the end of the season. Normally, Ba’s clear cut chance conversion should have stayed around 62- 50%, but the big decline shows Ba has lost that spark and confidence he once had in front of goal.

But the most devastating and most alarming stat is his conversion rate. Prior to Cisse’s arrival, Ba had a chance conversion of 33% and now that stat is down to 3%. That’s a huge decline of huge proportions. It demonstrates just how the confidence has been drained out of the player, and it hasn’t been helped by him being played out of his favourable position.  The few goals scored, the clear cut conversion and chance conversion rate worryingly indicate, Ba is not only out of form but it could suggest the player is suffering from fatigue too. One must recall Ba also played in the African Cup of Nations in January, granted it was for a very short amount of time, but the travelling and climate changes could have taken its toll on his body.  

Demba Ba has declined severely since January. The player looks uncomfortable in his new position and he seems bankrupt of confidence. It is crucial in the summer, Pardew devises a plan to finally get the best out Ba again. The Newcastle boss may need to redefine the role for Ba, thus attempting give Ba a better understanding of how he wants him to play in the position behind Cisse. But Ba himself must take a good break in the summer and come back in pre-season with the determination to rediscover his goal scoring touch and adapt to the role Pardew has set him.

However, I believe in order for Cisse and Ba to both be effective. Newcastle may have to do a Chelsea. Newcastle may well have to play one or the other, as opposed to starting them both. Just like Chelsea have done to facilitate Torres and Drogba. As it’s clear both players are at their most lethal when leading the line. Furthermore, with the Europa League to contend next season, it can’t be expected Ba and Cisse can both start all of Newcastle’s games. If the duo are rotated, it could lead to Newcastle having an eye for goal not only in the Premier League but in Europe too.

But so far, Ba’s new role at Newcastle demonstrates he is a player who is uncomfortable in the position he is playing in. It is crucial Newcastle and Ba get back to the drawing board and find a way to get him and Cisse singing off the same hymn sheet. 

(Stats from EPL Index)

Video: Demba Ba admits his addiction to Syrup

Well, this is random. When Demba Ba is asked by Geoff Shreeves to reveal a random secret which no one knows about him, Ba reveals his love for syrup. The Senegalese international who has 15 Premier League goals to his name also admitted he loves having syrup in his water! Footballers can be odd. Very odd..

Why Newcastle’s transfer strategy is shrewd rather than ‘brainless’

There is something odd about Newcastle’s start to the season. Everyone had written Newcastle off. Most thought the team would be languishing in and around the bottom half of the table. While, rather brutally, some wanted the team to fail, as the club sold their best players rather enthusiastically and replaced them with talented players who have little Premier League experience

But the team have surprised everyone and have started the season in defiant fashion. After 7 games, Newcastle find themselves fourth and still unbeaten.

What’s more enlightening for the Newcastle fans is that the team look very balanced and cohesive. The side appear to have a fair spread of technical quality in a variety of positions.

Indeed, the season is still young, but this Newcastle side continue to have a growing potent and competitive bite.

One could argue a sector of this success is down to Newcastle’s transfer policy. However, because of the way the policy has been handled by the club, especially the sale of Newcastle players. People have condemned Newcastle’s strategy as ‘suicidal,’ ‘brainless’ and ‘utterly stupid.’

But if one takes a look at the players who arrived to the club, Newcastle’s ‘brainless’ strategy is filled with logic.

Player	From	Fee
Mehdi Abeid	Lens	Free
Yohan Cabaye	Lille	£4.3mill
Demba Ba	West Ham	Free
Sylvain Marveaux	Rennes	Free
Gabriel Obertan	Manchester United	£3.25mill
Davide Santon	Inter	£5mill
Rob Elliot	Charlton	£300k
Total players signed - 7		Total Spent - £12.85mill

Looking at the players signed, a lot can be revealed about Newcastle’s logic behind their strategy. Of course, four out of the seven new signings suggest a hint of a French revolution going on at Newcastle. But there is more to it than just ‘signing French players.’

It’s clear the club are looking to buy technical players, who have arguably not fulfilled their potential for one reason or another, for a reasonable price. The theme of not fulfilling their potential can easily be connected to some of Newcastle’s signings in the past 18 months. Some of the players signed have a history of injury issues, consistency issues and professionalism problems. The likes of Marveaux, Santon, Ben Arfa, and Ba have all suffered from long term injury issues.

But the key in this policy, is signing technically gifted players, for a low price. This gives Newcastle the chance of building a team consisting of quality players who can successfully compete in the Premier League. Of course, signing players who are injury prone comes with a massive risk. These new players may continue to suffer from injuries, thus hindering them from performing for the club. Not only this, if a player is continuously injured, it will have an effect on his sell on price, which could mean Newcastle could be selling at losses.

The principle Newcastle have pursued this strategy regardless of the players history of injuries it’s evident the board are willing to take a gamble.

Indeed, Newcastle’s transfer strategy contrasts rather dramatically to the strategies chosen by Liverpool and Manchester United. Both United and Liverpool have taken an active search for signing home grown players, whereas Newcastle have looked aboard to fill their squads. In fact, 57% Newcastle’s new signings this summer have come from abroad.

Again, there is great common sense in looking abroad especially in this current economic climate in football.

There is no denying that the English market is incredibly hyper inflated at the moment. The massive multi million pound sales of untested, unproven and inexperienced English youngsters have driven the value of Premier League players to a sky high level.

Perhaps this explains why Newcastle United have been searching nations such as France, Portugal, and Germany amongst others countries. These markets offer more value for money, and one could argue, they offer far more technically gifted players too.

Furthermore, another virtue of signing players based in France, Germany and Portugal is that the Premier League is held in a higher regard, in terms of reputation and economics. This means that players from the very best of France or Portugal are more likely to seriously consider an offer from a decent Premier League side such as Newcastle. Even regardless of the club’s last few years of underachievement. The perspective player knows they will get the chance to play in one the world’s most reputable and competitive leagues. Not only this, playing in the Premier League often means a substantial pay rise in comparison to the top leagues in other nations such as France or Portugal.

Newcastle’s transfer strategy has been well thought out and has not been constructed on impulse or panic buys. Undeniably, the strategy was born well before Alan Pardew joined the club.

A glance at Newcastle’s transfers in the 2010/11 season, which Chris Houghton started the season in charge, the club signed the likes of Hatem Ben Arfa and Cheik Tiote.
One could argue, last season proved the strategy works for the club, as both players were highly impressive in their debut season.

But the principle that Newcastle’s strategy began well before the Pardew reign suggests the manager is not completely in control of transfers. This is especially clear when considering Alan Pardew. Firstly, in one of his earlier press conferences, Pardew stated he wanted to keep Andy Carroll at Newcastle, but a few months later, Carroll was sold. Another example is when the club were actively looking to sell Joey Barton, during this period Pardew continuously selected Barton in his Newcastle XI.

The odd element of the strategy is that there is no visible transfer orchestrator at Newcastle. The club are unwilling to assign anyone in the ‘director of football’ bracket, as it could reignite the bitter resentment and frustrations which the fans felt when Kevin Keegan resigned in 2008 because his authority was flouted by the presence of a director of football.

With hindsight, Chris Houghton could have been fired as he was unwilling to conform the board’s transfer strategy. While his successor Alan Pardew is known to have a good personal off the field relationship with Mike Ashley along with other members of the Newcastle board. So Pardew could be more willing to accept the strategy.

However, Newcastle’s board have been very successful in making a healthy profit in the past year.

The mere economics of Newcastle’s strategy symbolises that the club have been extremely shrewd with their dealings. For all the player changes which have happened this summer, in net spend, Newcastle United have spent just 850k for 7 players.

There is no denying Newcastle’s transfer policy takes a degree of risk. Signing certain players who have a history of injuries and have little Premier League experience could prove to be costly for The Toon Army.

But so far, the policy has been economically proficient, and has reaped rewards on the pitch.

This new look Newcastle side look assured, confident and solid.

Indeed, the strategy may have been handled badly especially the sale of key players, but there is logic and reasoning behind the players who have arrived at the club.

And with each positive result, the Newcastle revolution gets bigger and bigger.