Why is Demba Ba firing Blanks for Newcastle?

To be perfectly honest, Demba Ba has been the best free transfer signing of this season. The former Hammers man has scored 16 Premier League goals this term, with 8 coming at home and the other 8 of course coming on the road.

During December, it was perfectly arguable to say Demba Ba was the best signing of the summer. And it was merely stating the obvious that Demba Ba was one of the finest strikers in the Premier League. After all, he was scoring for fun. But when his international team mate Papiss Cisse joined, everyone thought Newcastle now had two brilliant strikers, meaning double the goal action for Newcastle faithful.

But things haven’t worked out exactly like that. 

Indeed, Papiss Cisse has hit the ground running in emphatic fashion. I mean 13 goals in 13 games in the Premier League is unbelievable, especially considering its his first few months in the division too.  And if you’ve seen his recent goals, most of them are just incredible, some of them are worldie efforts. 

But the partnership between Cisse and Ba hasn’t worked out completely to plan. And it’s had its most devasting effect on Ba. In fact, whenever the two have started a game Ba has failed to score in all of those games. 

But why is this the case?

To find out, we’ve taken Ba’s stats from when he was in lethal form playing in the middle as the main man at Newcastle (so stats from August to January). And we’ve also taken his stats from when Cisse joined the club (February till May).

Stats via EPL Index

It’s key to note, one of the first things Pardew did to facilitate Cisse was to shift Ba to a more left sided role, as opposed to playing them both up top. However, the strikers would often swap roles during games. But recently, Ba has occasionally gone up top with Cisse in certain periods of matches. And when this has happened, Ba has looked far more potent, especially if one looks at his final two games against City and Everton. 

Starting off with Ba’s shots stats, the Newcastle’s number 19 went from 60 attempts on goal, to 49.  The decline in shots, could show Ba struggling to get into the key positions or his favourable positions to attempt to score. But the most alarming stat, which further indicates this is Ba’s shots on target record. Prior to the arrival of Cisse, Ba had 30 shots on target, by the end of the season, Ba managed exactly half of that.  Furthermore, since playing from the left hand side, Ba has had more shots blocked too.  This could indicate defenders are more capable of nullifying Ba’s threat from the left hand, thus restricting his effect on the game.  

Ba’s move to the left handside has seen his shot accuracy decline rather drastically. From the start of the season to January, Ba had a 63% shot accuracy. While by the end of the season, it was at 45%. For me, this symbolises just how Ba has struggled to get into his favourable positions to be at his most clinical sharpness.

Diagram of Ba goal placements:

If you look at Ba’s goals placements, most have been placed in the bottom left hand side. This to an extent, reinstates, why Ba has struggled to score in the second half of the season. Ba’s move to a more deeper left sided role has meant he has struggled to get into his most natural and instinctive position to find the net.  After all, if he's playing in a more left sided role, his chances of scoring via the bottom left hand corner are limited, due to his aim being narrowed by his initial position.

To many, Ba hasn’t done a brilliant job in his new role at Newcastle. You can see their point. I mean he has been anonymous since Cisse has joined. But what’s interesting is that in his deeper role, the Newcastle number 19 has won more aerial duals and won more tackles and he has also seen more of the ball too, as suggested by the number of passes he’s made. As much as this shows Ba getting involved in the nitty gritty of the game, Ba has struggled to actually create sufficient chances for his team mates, especially for Cisse. In his deeper role, Ba created just 10 chances, assisting once. But on the same token, when Ba was leading the line he assisted just once again and in fact created fewer chances (9). It’s transparent this is a feature of Ba’s game which he has to improve on. Ba as a target man or as a deep forward, he must be more effective in creating chances for his team mates. 

But what’s interesting is that in his deeper role,  Ba has made less final third passes and he has also attempted less crosses. For me, this along with the drought of goals and the lack of chances created it suggests two things. It firstly suggests Ba has not fully understood his new role in the Newcastle side, hence his anonymity in the second half of the season.  Or it could highlight Ba is not comfortable in the role, which would probably explain why he’s been on such dramatic goal drought this season.

For me, it’s a mixture of not understanding his new role and not being comfortable in it. As Demba Ba is a man who played in the right position can score for fun. Ba knows this himself more than anyone and one could argue, it’s taken its toll on his confidence. 

Now, with statistics, it’s hard to measure up confidence. Actually its impossible. But there are a few indicators. The clear chance conversion rate gives a decent indicator. Ba went from 62% to nearly half of that by the end of the season. Normally, Ba’s clear cut chance conversion should have stayed around 62- 50%, but the big decline shows Ba has lost that spark and confidence he once had in front of goal.

But the most devastating and most alarming stat is his conversion rate. Prior to Cisse’s arrival, Ba had a chance conversion of 33% and now that stat is down to 3%. That’s a huge decline of huge proportions. It demonstrates just how the confidence has been drained out of the player, and it hasn’t been helped by him being played out of his favourable position.  The few goals scored, the clear cut conversion and chance conversion rate worryingly indicate, Ba is not only out of form but it could suggest the player is suffering from fatigue too. One must recall Ba also played in the African Cup of Nations in January, granted it was for a very short amount of time, but the travelling and climate changes could have taken its toll on his body.  

Demba Ba has declined severely since January. The player looks uncomfortable in his new position and he seems bankrupt of confidence. It is crucial in the summer, Pardew devises a plan to finally get the best out Ba again. The Newcastle boss may need to redefine the role for Ba, thus attempting give Ba a better understanding of how he wants him to play in the position behind Cisse. But Ba himself must take a good break in the summer and come back in pre-season with the determination to rediscover his goal scoring touch and adapt to the role Pardew has set him.

However, I believe in order for Cisse and Ba to both be effective. Newcastle may have to do a Chelsea. Newcastle may well have to play one or the other, as opposed to starting them both. Just like Chelsea have done to facilitate Torres and Drogba. As it’s clear both players are at their most lethal when leading the line. Furthermore, with the Europa League to contend next season, it can’t be expected Ba and Cisse can both start all of Newcastle’s games. If the duo are rotated, it could lead to Newcastle having an eye for goal not only in the Premier League but in Europe too.

But so far, Ba’s new role at Newcastle demonstrates he is a player who is uncomfortable in the position he is playing in. It is crucial Newcastle and Ba get back to the drawing board and find a way to get him and Cisse singing off the same hymn sheet. 

(Stats from EPL Index)

Is There Any Way Back For Gignac?‏

The Football Front’s Andrew Swan evaluates the recent few years of struggle and glory for Andre –Pierre Gignac.

Andre-Pierre Gignac ended May 2009 as Ligue 1’s top scorer. Fast forward two and a half years and in November 2011 he has been banished to the reserves having scored only one goal in six months. It has been a challenging 30 months for Marseille’s Gignac, known by teammates and friends as Dédé. The 26 year old has endured a rocky career so far with huge peaks and troughs thanks to injuries, international appearances, prolific patches of form and goal scoring, increases in weight and dips in form.

Gignac’s career has seen him travel a great deal around France playing early on for ES Fos-sur-Mer and FC Martigues on the Cote d’Azur where he grew up before moving north to Brittany to join the youth academy of professional club Lorient, a Ligue 2 club at the time. Such a big move for 17 year old Gignac was necessary having been released by FC Martigues. Such a knock to his confidence early on in his career wasn’t noticed as he developed well and found himself promoted to the Lorient senior team in 2004 by then manager Christian Gourcuff. Such faith shown in Gignac by the club and manager was quickly repaid as Gignac scored what proved to be the winning goal on his debut, against Chateauroux. Unfortunately Gignac struggled to settle and fully secure a place in the Lorient first 11 that season and the next season saw him loaned out to Championnat National club Pau. Having dropped to one of the lower tiers of French football, Gignac began to find his feet and his shooting boots and managed 8 goals and 4 assists in his 18 appearances for the Pyrénées-Atlantiques club.

This new found confidence ensured that by the start of the 2006-07 season, Gignac was a mainstay in the Lorient starting 11. The trust in Gignac saw him net a club best 9 goals and provide 5 assists in 37 appearances. Such form had resulted in a number of more prestigious clubs take an interest in the 20 year-old with Lille and Toulouse coming head-to-head over his signature. It was widely reported that Lille had already entered a pre-contract agreement with Lorient. However with the lure of potential Champions League football and an offer of more than double the salary that Lille were prepared to offer, Gignac opted for a return to the south of France with Toulouse.

Unfortunately, as it had with Lorient, Gignac’s form with Toulouse took some time to get going. In his first season Gignac only managed 2 goals, he struggled with weight and confidence issues and sat behind Johan Elmander in the pecking order. Having come to the club in search of first team football and Champions League football, Gignac was undoubtedly disappointed with his first season at Toulouse, as they crashed out of the Champions League 3^rd qualifying round 0-5 to Liverpool, and finished the season just one place above the relegation zone. With the departure of Elmander to Bolton over the summer period, Gignac again found himself to be the number one choice and after a solid pre-season found his goal scoring form again. Such form and a continued run in the first team ensured that Gignac finished this season as the Ligue 1 top scorer, and was playing in the French national team after what most would consider his most successful season to date.

After such a successful season it was inevitable that there would be interest from other clubs. Some of Europe’s top clubs were reportedly interested at the time with Arsenal, Manchester United, AC Milan and Olympique Lyonnais all enquiring about Gignac’s services. However, Gignac demonstrated his commitment to Toulouse by signing a contract extension with the club. Next season Gignac picked up where he had left off previously, netting 12 times before Christmas. Unfortunately due to injury, the second half of Gignac’s season was poor in comparison, and he only managed another 4 goals.

Teams were still aware of Gignac’s skill and potential and when Marseille tabled a bid of around €18 million ahead of the 2010-2011 season, neither Toulouse nor Gignac could turn this down. This was going to be the real big chance for Dédé, joining a team who had just won the league and cup double and who were guaranteed Champions League football. The signing was well timed, as shortly after Marseille revealed that they had signed another promising young French player, Loic Remy. It was during the opening months of this season that Gignac’s confidence took another blow. He was struggling for form and goals, criticism from fans and ex-professionals was aimed in his direction. With the support of confident manager Didier Deschamps, Gignac managed to turn his form around after the winter break and scored 8 times. Unfortunately Marseille missed out on the title to Lille during this season, and Gignac’s poor early season form was highlighted from some quarters as being one of the contributing factors for this.

Injury curtailed Gignac’s pre-season training again ahead of the 2011-2012 season and Deschamps sent him away to Italy to a fitness camp (although some dubbed it a ‘fat camp’). After a great deal of hard work Gignac returned to Marseille looking in much better physical shape. In an attempt to regain the Ligue 1 title, Deschamps had begun to employ a new tactical strategy, looking to 4-3-3, and because of the pre-season Remy was the preferred starting striker with Andre Ayew and Lucho Gonzalez making up the remainder of the strike force. This push on Gignac’s confidence came at a time when the whole team was on a poor run of form, with Deschamps’ new tactics failing to bring in the results he hoped. Marseille slumped to one of their worse starts in years and criticism of this was aimed at players, coaches and club officials. It seemed that Deschamp’s faith in Gignac was wearing thin, with his place in the squad seemingly to make up numbers and was given minor bit-parts in games. The pressure of this situation came to a head when, having started the game, Gignac reacted angrily when he was substituted against Olympiakos in the Champions League. He reportedly threw a water bottle, walked immediately to the changing rooms had an argument with Deschamps after Marseille were defeated. This saw Gignac cast out of the Marseille squad to the reserves.

As I mentioned earlier, it has been a long 2 ½ year s for Andre-Pierre Gignac, which has taken its toll emotionally on the player. Gignac has continually proved his doubters wrong on a number of previous occasions, through regaining fitness and form to ensure he can contribute to any team he is a part of. Given the right training regime to help keep fitness levels at their peak and reduce the likelihood of repeat injuries, and given the right mentoring from a suitable coach or management team, Gignac should be able to push for his place in the French international team again. However, with a mixture of exciting prospects and experienced internationals like Kevin Gameiro, Dimitri Payet, Karim Benzema, and Loic Remy currently in his way, he will have to motivate himself, he needs to regain his form and confidence in order to be one of France’s best players again.

This article was written by Andrew Swan. You can find more of Andrew’s work on his blog: omarseilleuk.wordpress.com .Andrew can also be followed on Twitter: @OMarseilleUK.