Who Will Win The Euros?

Hello, I’m Callum Rivett and welcome to the latest part in my wide selection of articles! With the release of England’s Euro squad, I’ll look and see whether we have any chance at all of even passing the group stage, let alone winning it. I’m going to see who are the main contenders for the trophy, and give you my thoughts and reasoning behind my choice of who’ll win this year.

Let’s start by looking at the England squad and any mistakes I think Hodgson has made or what he has got right.

Goalkeepers:
Joe Hart (Manchester City), Rob Green (West Ham United), John Ruddy (Norwich City)
Defenders:
Leighton Baines (Everton), Gary Cahill (Chelsea), Ashley Cole (Chelsea), Glen Johnson (Liverpool), Phil Jones (Manchester United), Joleon Lescott (Manchester City), John Terry (Chelsea)
Midfielders:
Gareth Barry (Manchester City), Stewart Downing (Liverpool), Steven Gerrard (Liverpool), Frank Lampard (Chelsea), James Milner (Manchester City), Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain (Arsenal), Scott Parker (Tottenham Hotspur), Theo Walcott (Arsenal), Ashley Young (Manchester United)
Forwards:
Andy Carroll (Liverpool), Jermain Defoe (Tottenham Hotspur), Wayne Rooney (Manchester United), Daniel Welbeck (Manchester United)

Including John Ruddy is a good decision in my eyes, he’s had a fantastic year for Norwich and came second as Norwich Player of the Season vote, beaten only by Grant Holt who definitely should have gone in place of Jermain Defoe. I also do not rate Danny Welbeck, he’s severely over-rated by the media, and I’m gutted he is included. Fair enough, if he ends the tournament top-scorer I’ll put my hands up and say I was wrong. But I doubt that.

Andy Carroll is a massive risk, he’s started to turn good for Liverpool towards the end of the season and I think next year will be his best year ever in terms of goals. Our defence looks shaky: having no Micah Richards is a mistake, he’s quick, a good crosser, who can attack and can play anywhere along the back four. The midfield looks predictable, and mostly what everyone would have expected. Except Stewart Downing. Why oh why has he picked him? Zero goals, zero assists for Liverpool this year. Terrible waste of a space that could have been used to accommodate someone who will offer more to the team - Adam Johnson perhaps.

Joe Hart is our number one, he will be world class. But Green ahead of Ruddy? Did he watch THAT match against the USA? Our strikers for the first two games have scored a whopping great total of… 24 (Defoe - 11, Carroll - 4, Welbeck - 9) in 90 combined Premier League appearances this season.

Yeah. Not so good.

After slating our national team, let’s go on to who I think will win the tournament. I’ll give you a clue: they’re 2nd favorites. Another clue? They play in white and black. We lost 4-1 to them in the World Cup 2010?

You got it. Germany.

One of the youngest, if not the youngest, squads in the world right now, and one of the most talented. Just look at it. This is their preliminary squad:
 

Goalkeepers:
Manuel Neuer (Bayern Munich), Tim Wiese (Hoffenheim), Ron-Robert Zieler (Hannover), Marc-Andre ter Stegen (Moenchengladbach).
Defenders:
Holger Badstuber (Bayern Munich), Jerome Boateng (Bayern Munich), Mats Hummels (Dortmund), Per Mertesacker (Arsenal), Bendikt Howedes (Schalke), Philipp Lahm (Bayern Munich), Marcel Schmelzer (Dortmund).
Midfielders:
Bastian Schweinsteiger (Bayern Munich), Sami Khedira (Real Madrid), Sven Bender (Dortmund), Lars Bender (Leverkusen), Ilkay Gundogan (Dortmund), Toni Kroos (Bayern Munich), Julian Draxler (Schalke), Marco Reus (Moenchengladbach), Mario Gotze (Dortmund), Mesut Ozil (Real Madrid).
Forwards:
Mario Gomez (Bayern Munich), Miroslav Klose (Lazio), Cacau (Stuttgart), Thomas Muller (Bayern Munich), Andreas Schurrle (Leverkusen), Lukas Podolski (Cologne).

The amount of players who play in the Bundesliga in their squad stands at 23. They know each other, they know how to play with each other, and the chemistry level in their squad must be amazing. They’ve got the right mix of youth and experience, often combining the two, because they introduced them to the world stage two years ago in South Africa. Players like Mesut Ozil, Mats Hummels, Mario Gomez and Manuel Neuer are all world class, yet all so young. Then throw in players like Miroslav Klose, Thomas Muller, Lukas Podolski, Phillip Lahm - and that’s just to name a few - and you’ve got an awesome concoction of brilliant German efficiency.

Spain are favourites, but for me it’s Germany to win. Spanish players like midfield maestro Xavi are now into their 30s - as well as Xabi Alonso and Carlos Puyol. This last four years has undoubtedly been their ‘Golden Generation’ but to keep up now they have to move quickly to integrate the youth players into the senior team like they did all those years ago.
Holland are third favourites, but to not only repeat the feat of finishing second in the World Cup but to actually win it, is possibly a step too far for the Dutch. Players like Wesley Sneijder, Robin van Persie and Maarten Stekelenburg will have to be on top form to get them their and achieve glory for the Netherlands - and with possibly Spain and Germany blocking their way, it will be a very difficult task indeed.

That about sums it up, this has been a lot to get through but I hope you’ve enjoyed reading this and will continue to read my articles. I’ll leave you with the thought that whoever the commentators are in the Euros, they will not enjoy commentating on Greece’s games. Spare a thought for those very unlucky people. That’ll be it my friends, goodbye for now and have a very good week.

Follow Callum on twitter: @CJRivett12. You can find more of Callum's work here.

Why Newcastle’s transfer strategy is shrewd rather than ‘brainless’

There is something odd about Newcastle’s start to the season. Everyone had written Newcastle off. Most thought the team would be languishing in and around the bottom half of the table. While, rather brutally, some wanted the team to fail, as the club sold their best players rather enthusiastically and replaced them with talented players who have little Premier League experience

But the team have surprised everyone and have started the season in defiant fashion. After 7 games, Newcastle find themselves fourth and still unbeaten.

What’s more enlightening for the Newcastle fans is that the team look very balanced and cohesive. The side appear to have a fair spread of technical quality in a variety of positions.

Indeed, the season is still young, but this Newcastle side continue to have a growing potent and competitive bite.

One could argue a sector of this success is down to Newcastle’s transfer policy. However, because of the way the policy has been handled by the club, especially the sale of Newcastle players. People have condemned Newcastle’s strategy as ‘suicidal,’ ‘brainless’ and ‘utterly stupid.’

But if one takes a look at the players who arrived to the club, Newcastle’s ‘brainless’ strategy is filled with logic.

Player	From	Fee
Mehdi Abeid	Lens	Free
Yohan Cabaye	Lille	£4.3mill
Demba Ba	West Ham	Free
Sylvain Marveaux	Rennes	Free
Gabriel Obertan	Manchester United	£3.25mill
Davide Santon	Inter	£5mill
Rob Elliot	Charlton	£300k
Total players signed - 7		Total Spent - £12.85mill

Looking at the players signed, a lot can be revealed about Newcastle’s logic behind their strategy. Of course, four out of the seven new signings suggest a hint of a French revolution going on at Newcastle. But there is more to it than just ‘signing French players.’

It’s clear the club are looking to buy technical players, who have arguably not fulfilled their potential for one reason or another, for a reasonable price. The theme of not fulfilling their potential can easily be connected to some of Newcastle’s signings in the past 18 months. Some of the players signed have a history of injury issues, consistency issues and professionalism problems. The likes of Marveaux, Santon, Ben Arfa, and Ba have all suffered from long term injury issues.

But the key in this policy, is signing technically gifted players, for a low price. This gives Newcastle the chance of building a team consisting of quality players who can successfully compete in the Premier League. Of course, signing players who are injury prone comes with a massive risk. These new players may continue to suffer from injuries, thus hindering them from performing for the club. Not only this, if a player is continuously injured, it will have an effect on his sell on price, which could mean Newcastle could be selling at losses.

The principle Newcastle have pursued this strategy regardless of the players history of injuries it’s evident the board are willing to take a gamble.

Indeed, Newcastle’s transfer strategy contrasts rather dramatically to the strategies chosen by Liverpool and Manchester United. Both United and Liverpool have taken an active search for signing home grown players, whereas Newcastle have looked aboard to fill their squads. In fact, 57% Newcastle’s new signings this summer have come from abroad.

Again, there is great common sense in looking abroad especially in this current economic climate in football.

There is no denying that the English market is incredibly hyper inflated at the moment. The massive multi million pound sales of untested, unproven and inexperienced English youngsters have driven the value of Premier League players to a sky high level.

Perhaps this explains why Newcastle United have been searching nations such as France, Portugal, and Germany amongst others countries. These markets offer more value for money, and one could argue, they offer far more technically gifted players too.

Furthermore, another virtue of signing players based in France, Germany and Portugal is that the Premier League is held in a higher regard, in terms of reputation and economics. This means that players from the very best of France or Portugal are more likely to seriously consider an offer from a decent Premier League side such as Newcastle. Even regardless of the club’s last few years of underachievement. The perspective player knows they will get the chance to play in one the world’s most reputable and competitive leagues. Not only this, playing in the Premier League often means a substantial pay rise in comparison to the top leagues in other nations such as France or Portugal.

Newcastle’s transfer strategy has been well thought out and has not been constructed on impulse or panic buys. Undeniably, the strategy was born well before Alan Pardew joined the club.

A glance at Newcastle’s transfers in the 2010/11 season, which Chris Houghton started the season in charge, the club signed the likes of Hatem Ben Arfa and Cheik Tiote.
One could argue, last season proved the strategy works for the club, as both players were highly impressive in their debut season.

But the principle that Newcastle’s strategy began well before the Pardew reign suggests the manager is not completely in control of transfers. This is especially clear when considering Alan Pardew. Firstly, in one of his earlier press conferences, Pardew stated he wanted to keep Andy Carroll at Newcastle, but a few months later, Carroll was sold. Another example is when the club were actively looking to sell Joey Barton, during this period Pardew continuously selected Barton in his Newcastle XI.

The odd element of the strategy is that there is no visible transfer orchestrator at Newcastle. The club are unwilling to assign anyone in the ‘director of football’ bracket, as it could reignite the bitter resentment and frustrations which the fans felt when Kevin Keegan resigned in 2008 because his authority was flouted by the presence of a director of football.

With hindsight, Chris Houghton could have been fired as he was unwilling to conform the board’s transfer strategy. While his successor Alan Pardew is known to have a good personal off the field relationship with Mike Ashley along with other members of the Newcastle board. So Pardew could be more willing to accept the strategy.

However, Newcastle’s board have been very successful in making a healthy profit in the past year.

The mere economics of Newcastle’s strategy symbolises that the club have been extremely shrewd with their dealings. For all the player changes which have happened this summer, in net spend, Newcastle United have spent just 850k for 7 players.

There is no denying Newcastle’s transfer policy takes a degree of risk. Signing certain players who have a history of injuries and have little Premier League experience could prove to be costly for The Toon Army.

But so far, the policy has been economically proficient, and has reaped rewards on the pitch.

This new look Newcastle side look assured, confident and solid.

Indeed, the strategy may have been handled badly especially the sale of key players, but there is logic and reasoning behind the players who have arrived at the club.

And with each positive result, the Newcastle revolution gets bigger and bigger.

Five Tactical Points from the Everton - Liverpool game

The Football Front's Nick Meredith evaluates the tactics behind Liverpool's win at Everton in the Merseyside Derby.

Formations once Jack Rodwell had been sent off. Note Leon Osman’s attempt to shuttle between two positions, and how he ended up more in the centre than out wide.

1.) Andy Carroll playing deep

Liverpool’s £35 million man, Andy Carroll, started today looking to improve on his lacklustre beginning to life at his new club. Being a tall, strong striker, Carroll is usually deployed as the furthest forward player, the ‘No. 9’ - the head of the team, using his aerial ability and hold up play to bring others into dangerous positions. With Dalglish also trying to fit the much more effective Luis Suarez into the same side, the Uruguayan has often been played just off Carroll, drifting around and finding pockets of space.

Today, however, the roles were reversed, and each player put their own spin on the situation. With Carroll dropping back behind Suarez, he battled to win headers (relatively unsuccessfully: he only won two out of six aerial duels) and played possession passes to more creative players. While Suarez had a relatively quiet game by his standards, but his movement opened up space for others and his selfless work rate got him into good positions.

2.) Osman left Baines exposed

Due to the hideous refereeing decision that got Jack Rodwell sent off, Leon Osman was left to try and pick up the pieces more or less by himself on the left flank. As Marouane Fellaini was having to try and track the two Liverpool midfielders plus deal with Andy Carroll by himself, Osman was moved into a centralish position by Moyes, who presumably thought that the energy of Leighton Baines would allow him to cover two positions at once.

This worked somewhat – Baines got up and down the flank well – but it left him exposed to Dirk Kuyt, and removed the direct opponent of Martin Kelly. The young Liverpudlian right-back could then get forward unopposed, stretching the play and forcing Baines into two-on-one situations with him and Kuyt.

3.) Liverpool’s unbalanced wings

On a similar note, whilst Liverpool’s play was spread across the pitch, much of the movement of the players happened on the right. Part of this could be down to the aforementioned extra space caused by Osman’s move into the centre, but much was also to do with the players. On the left, Liverpool played Jose Enrique and Stewart Downing, two left-footed players who work hard and cross well. As a result, both stayed wide, and their movement was mostly vertical. On the other flank, Dirk Kuyt played arguably his most effective role, shuttling between a wide right position and a support striker. With Kelly bombing on and Downing and Enrique stretching play on the left, Kuyt could move inside without fear of compromising width, and he roamed across the Everton left side at will.

4.) Dalglish got it spot on after Rodwell’s dismissal

Rodwell’s sending off was the big talking point of the match, and arguably the turning point. Everton had been marginally the better side, and were coping well with everything Liverpool had to throw at them as well as constructing some good attacking moves. After Rodwell’s dismissal, Moyes did the usual trick of a team a man down and had Everton clam up. They played deeper and more narrow, inviting Liverpool pressure and looking to play on the counter.

Kenny Dalglish recognised that, and immediately moved to get Liverpool playing higher and wider, stretching the play and forcing Everton’s players to move wide to close down opponents. Everton held on, but eventually Liverpool players ended up finding gaps and exploited them ruthlessly.

5.) Louis Saha was left too isolated

It is often the job of a lone striker to hold the ball up and wait for midfield runners, particularly when the striker is big and strong as Louis Saha. Today, however, whilst Saha held the ball up well and generally looked lively, the midfield runners weren’t anywhere near quick enough in getting to him to provide support. As a result, Saha was left too isolated, losing the ball through no real fault of his own. It didn’t help that he was up against two rugged, aerially strong defenders in Jamie Carragher and Martin Skrtel either: Saha only won 14% of his aerial duels, which meant that the classic way of relieving pressure, a long ball to a target man forward, often meant that Liverpool won possession right back and were able to assault Everton’s goal once more.

This article was written by Nick Meredith, you can find all of his work for The Football Front here. Make sure you follow him on Twitter too: @NTMeredith. Nick also runs the fantastic Dots & Crosses website too - http://dotsandcrosses.wordpress.com/

The Tale of Five Expensive Strikers

The 2011 January transfer saw a record £225 million being spent in the Premier League in a single month. Normally, the January transfer window is viewed as a quiet window, due to clubs being unwilling sanction big moves. But January 2011 proved to be contrary to that line of thought.

There were five fantastic strikers who were brought in January. Fernando Torres, Andy Carroll, Edin Dzeko, Luis Suarez and Darren Bent. Each of these five strikers cost their new clubs more than £20million.

Furthermore, the five strikers have a combined value of £152.8million. You would have to say, it’s a very expensive 5 aside team!

The massive sums being splashed on these players quite obviously mean that all five players are massive signings. Their new fans and clubs should quite rightly expect big things from these centre forwards.

But how have they fared in their first 5 months of their new job?

Here are the stats for the fantastic five.

Name	Transfer Fee	Total Appearances	Total Goals	PL (Premier League )apps	PL goals	PL assists	PL shots per game	Goals per game ratio
Fernando Torres	£50mill	18	1	14	1	2	1.1	0.05
Edin Dzeko	£27 mill	21	6	15	2	2	1.5	0.28
Darren Bent	£18 mill potential £24mill	16	9	16	9	1	1.7	0.56
Andy Carroll	£35mill	9	2	7	2	0	1.9	0.22
Luis Suarez	£22.8mill	13	4	13	4	3	3.6	0.30
Total	£152.8	77	22	65	18	8

To many observers of the game, these stats aren’t inspiring, especially when you consider the huge sums spent on these players.

It’s evident, Darren Bent has scored the most goals, by far. Nine goals in sixteen games is a pretty impressive record. He clearly has settled in at Aston Villa very smoothly and his goal record already proves this.

Some argue, Bent’s Villa goal scoring record is something which should be expected. Seeing as he has consistently proved he can score in the Premier League. However rather ironically, the most expensive Premier League player, Fernando Torres has only scored once for Chelsea. This is a horrifying statistic. The principle that Torres was signed for £50 million and has only conjured one goal in 5 months is incredibly alarming.

Edin Dzeko’s goal return has been satisfying. Six goals in twenty-one games isn’t terrible. But, his form in the Premier League paints a distressing picture. In 15 appearances, Dzeko has managed just two goals.

For a man who has cost Man City £27 million, one would expect a few more goals. Especially, since the player has an impeccable goal scoring record. Prior to his move to City, the Bosnian scored 10 league goals for Wolfsburg this season.

However, it’s fair to say Edin Dzeko needs time. After all, this is his first time playing in the Premier League. He is still adapting to the technical and physical demands of the English League.

When considering Dzeko’s appearances, he has played the most games in comparison to any of the other strikers analysed. The reason for this is pretty logical. This is firstly because the Bosnian striker joined Man City at the start of January. While the other four strikers were signed towards the end of the month.

Coming back to appearances, Dzeko made 15 Premier League appearances. 8 of those appearances have been from off the bench. Perhaps this shows how Dzeko has failed to settle into Man City so far.

After all, one would expect a 27 million pound centre forward to start most of the games for their new club. Dzeko’s failure in getting starts for Man City could suggest that buying big players in January isn’t a good idea. The player, like in the case of Dzeko could fail to adapt to the environment of the new league. Or perhaps internally, the player could struggle to truly understand the teams strategy or their role in the team. The same hypothesis could be followed when considering the form of Andy Carroll and Fernando Torres.

The player who appeared the least amount of times is Andy Carroll. The £35million man has only appeared 9 times for Liverpool. This is a serious worry for the Liverpool fans. Especially when considering he is the clubs’record signing. The fans quite rightly, want him to contribute heavily on the pitch, rather than spending most of his time on the sidelines. Furthermore, three of the player’s analysed, they have played double the amount that Carroll has for Liverpool. Next season Andy Carroll will have to prove that he is not an injury prone player and he has to justify his massive price tag.

While Andy Carroll’s strike partner, Luis Suarez has the best assist record in comparison to all the strikers analysed. In thirteen appearances, he has set up three goals. This record is reasonably satisfying. After all, this is the player’s first experience in the Premier League. There is no doubt Suarez has settled very quickly into England and Liverpool. His tenacious style has enlightened and energised the kop. This is backed up by Suarez having the most shots per game. On this basis, one could argue, the Uruguayan is perhaps the most threatening striker out of the five analysed.

The 6ft 4 Edin Dzeko has only assisted twice for Man City. The principle, Dzeko’s game is based on the Bosnian’s physicality, one would expect him to assist more. Especially as the player is relatively decent in the air and can creatively pass. The same could also be stated about Andy Carroll. The England international has completely failed to assist for Liverpool. However, this could be because if a player is to regularly assist, he needs to be settled in the starting 11. This is something that both Dzeko and Carroll have failed to achieve.

Along with Edin Dzeko and Andy Carroll, it’s clear the jury is still out for all the five strikers. Of course, Darren Bent and Luis Suarez have had satisfying starts to their new clubs. But more will be expected from all the strikers next season. Each club will demand a consistent goal flow from each striker, especially since the clubs have dug deep to sign them.

The statistics for the five strikers do not light up the screen. But a complete pre-season with their respected clubs will further enhance their bodies and mind for the demands of the Premier League. One should expect all the strikers performances to further improve and for the player to look far more settled.

There is one certainty which lies ahead of the new season, the levels of expectations will dramatically rise next season. All the strikers will have to perform and contribute consistently next season. The excuse of ‘settling into the team’ will no longer be accepted. All five strikers will have to prove their moneys worth.

A mere 22 goals from men who have a combined value of £152.8 million is hardly justifiable. But, the statistics could be proof that signing big players in January isn’t a good idea. As it gives no time for the players to develop an intuition of their new teams theories and strategies. This then leads to the players such as Torres, Dzeko and Carroll to initially fail to live up to expectations placed on them.

Indeed, all five men will have to truly justify their value next season.

Things you may like to read

Why the signing of Andy Carroll is a fatal error for Liverpool

Edin Dzeko – How will he fit into Manchester City’s catalogue of players

How will Chelsea shape up, now Fernando Torres has arrived

Why England should take their best players to the European Under 21 Tournament

England stars Jack Wilshere and Andy Carroll have been omitted from England’s Under 21 squad. This has been the most controversial aspect of England’s Under 21’s preparation so far.

But it’s clear both men should have gone.

There are a number of benefits of participating in this tournament.

Firstly, the players will gain even more international experience. This is absolutely crucial. It means the players will gain further understanding and confidence in England’s tactics and strategy. The more decisive the understanding is, the better a player can perform on the senior international stage. England must capitalise on these opportunities.

Furthermore, playing in the U21 has many psychological benefits too. The players will develop mechanisms on how to how to deal with the pressures of playing various large international games within a short space of time.

However, not only this, the players will also develop a personal system to deal with the logistics of large tournaments. This will make the youngsters have relative experience of the football tournament environment. So some aspects of large tournaments will not be viewed as ‘new experiences’ for the youngsters.

The likes of Mesut Ozill, Sami Khedira, Thomas Muller are all examples of the benefits of participating in the Under 21 tournaments. All three players were crucial figures for Germany in the last World Cup. One could argue, their brilliant World Cup performances stemmed from the experience they developed and gained whilst participating in the U21 tournaments.

No one can deny the press and certain English clubs have over inflated the Under 21 selection debate. They have presented their ideas as if England are the only nation in the tournament taking relatively experienced youngsters to the games.

This is clearly incorrect. After all, Spain are set to take; Juan Manuel Mata, Sergio Busquets and Iker Munain. All of these players have featured heavily for their clubs this season. Yet, their clubs and the Spanish press are not making a massive fuss over the issue. One could argue they are solely considering the player’s development and looking to further improve the player. The same mentality can be found in Germany. The national team, in Germany holds far more value over club football and this is understood by the German clubs. But it seems with some of the English clubs they look to protect their own interests rather than the overall development of the player.

Furthermore, Christian Eriksen, 19, has played 47 games this season. While Jack Wilshere, also 19, has played 49 games. In the case of Eriksen its proof that Wilshere isn’t the only player who could go to the Under 21 tournament with a great number of games under their belt. Both players have clearly admitted they want to play in the tournament. Whereas, the two clubs hold different views. Ajax understands Eriksen’s desire to play and wish him the best. While, Arsenal have taken a hard line approach and are unwilling to see their player learn and develop their international game.

It’s incredibly frustrating for England in the long term, as they cannot maximise on the player’s international experience.

A common criticism of the summer tournaments is that the players are unable to get a complete rest. Thus resulting in the possibility of the player burning themselves out or getting injured. This is agreeable. But every year, no matter who the player is, certain English clubs continuously complain. If the player is 26, the club will be angry if the player gets injured. But at the end of the day, it’s a foreseen consequence of international football. The players are aware of this risk too. But they want to represent their country and play football at the highest level.

The clubs need to respect the players’ wishes. After all, they are doing this because they have a passion for the game and their country. This should be encouraged and credited, not hindered.

One must remember, letting these talented youngsters play will not only benefit their clubs, it will benefit a nation.

Things you may like to read

England’s new 4-3-3 system, the platform for English success? - http://tiny.cc/qcgmg

Why Emile Heskey’s Premier League days should be all but over - http://tiny.cc/hkuof

Why Kevin Davies should be in contention for the England squad - http://tiny.cc/jy8ri

A closer look at Liverpool ahead of their game against Manchester City

Here at The Football Front were going to try a new little feature. Every now and then were going to preview a team ahead of their match and talk about how they will formate, what strategy they will adopt and the team’s strength and weaknesses.

Today, were previewing Liverpool. Liverpool this Monday will be playing against Man City. Both sides are aspiring for the European places. Although Man City look more than certain to finally attain a Champions League spot. Whereas, Liverpool are battling to gain 5^th spot, which results in the right to play in the Europa League.

Liverpool’s last game saw them lose 2-1 to West Brom. Arguably, that result was deserved. As Liverpool lacked the creativity and were rather poor defensively. One must consider, the two early injuries to Glen Johnson and Daniel Agger had an effect on Liverpool’s organisation at the back.

But here is how we expect Liverpool to formate against Man City.

Formation – 4- 4-2

Key

Yellow –= Movement made every now and then

Green = Movement which will be made often

It seems Liverpool will approach this game with a bit of caution, rather than overloading with attack. This is for two reasons. Firstly, Man City are a team with sensational players. These players have the quality to be dangerous all over the Liverpool half. Secondly, Liverpool are vulnerable defensively. It would extremely logical of Roberto Mancini to tell his players to try and penetrate though Liverpool’s full backs. As Jamie Carragher, 33, isn’t the fastest or most agile full back. So a tricky Mario Ballotelli, Carlos Tevez or an Adam Johnson could cause a serious threat. While on the other flank, Fabio Aurelio has just come back from injury. This therefore means his fitness and match sharpness may not be at the optimum level. And if Man City’s wingers ware the full back down it could expose massive gaps in the Liverpool back line.

However, it’s clear, Jay Spearing and Lucas will provide cover and support for the full backs. But when this happens, it will make Liverpool’s defensive line drop further. And Meireles would have to drop into a more defensive central role in midfield. This would allow Man City to give licence to one of their two holding midfielders to take a more progressive role. But it’s expected that Kuyt and Meireles will be vehemently tracking back to support the full backs, rather than the Liverpool’s central midfield losing discipline and shape.

The Manchester City boss has a real chance to get three points at Anfield. But his rather calculated strategy at times has hindered his sides progression and results in the big games. But he must consider, Liverpool aren’t great on the counter. Collectively, Liverpool are not the fastest squad in the league. So Man City should look to impose themselves and could potentially have success. As Liverpool do not have many players who can run with the ball at pace or the sheer acceleration to get into crucial positions in a counter attacking move.

Mancini’s style of play, playing with two holding midfielders will allow Liverpool the chance to impose themselves on the game. If Liverpool pass the ball at the right tempo and can keep the ball effectively, this would enable the team to be able to allow the likes of Lucas, Aurelio and Carragher to progress forward and provide support in offensive areas.

The trickiness of Carroll and Suarez will cause some concern for Man City. As Man City aerially, aren’t the best at defending. So this makes Liverpool dangerous on set pieces and along with good crosses. Expect Carroll to seriously ask questions of the Manchester City’s defence.

Furthermore, Luis Suarez will play in and around the whole attacking line for Liverpool. It’s expected that Suarez will pop up, left right and centre. His unpredictable movement and fantastic dribbling skills could have the effect to force the Man City defence out of position. It also works as a ploy, to expose space for the other Liverpool players in the Man City defence. Take the Liverpool v Man United game. Suarez’ brilliance led to the Man United defence to be widely out of position. This led to the likes of Kuyt and Meireles to creep into crucial positions and punish Man United.

I expect Liverpool to try long balls to Andy Carroll more often than not against Man City. This is because Liverpool’s full backs won’t be as progressive as they potentially could be. As the main choice full backs, Johnson and Kelly are injured. So the likes of Aurelio and Carragher will look to play diagonal and straight balls to Carroll’s head from the half way line, rather than crossing from the by-line. This is simply because, Liverpool could get grossly exposed by Man City’s pacey and tricky wingers.

To sum up, this will be a probably be a rather open game, both teams have quality in the offensive positions. While Liverpool defensively are shaky and Man City will look to exploit that. But the nuisance of Luis Suarez and the height of Carroll will cause serious concern for the Man City defence.

Prediction 1-1

Things you may like to read

This weekend's Premier League predictions - preds from Micheal Cox (Zonal Marking) and John Bradley (LFCTV) - http://tiny.cc/d9qm3

England's new 4-3-3 system, is it the platform for English success? Part one - the positives - http://tiny.cc/6xe5d

Why Liverpool must use the abilties of Daniel Pacehco - http://tiny.cc/cru51

Why the signing of Andy Carroll is a fatal error for Liverpool

So Fernando Torres departs Liverpool for £50 million. Incomes Andy Carroll for a mind blowing £35 million. Andy Carroll now becomes the 8^th most expensive in the world. A frightening thought. Seeing as he has only 6 months of top level football experience. And a single England cap.

Mark Lawrenson once said ‘managers live and dies by the signings they make.’ It’s a very valid point. Especially in the case of Liverpool. One main point to why people wanted to see Rafa Benitez sacked was his poor signings. Go back even further, Bentiez’s predecessor Gerard Houllier, again poor signings by the end of his reign were a crucial factor his departure. Since the 90’s Liverpool have been renowned for making poor signings. Don’t get me wrong, there have been some fantastic signings. But there have been far too many poor signings, which has put Liverpool into decline. This Andy Carroll transfer could possibly be a transfer which haunts Liverpool for years to come. There are too many risks involved in this deal.

Okay, it sounds like I hate Andy Carroll. Its far from that, I do think he is a good player. He is a defender’s nightmare, as he is physically strong, both on the ground and in the air. He is defiantly a player with potential. But even if Liverpool signed Andy Carroll for £20 million its still a huge risk. As he is still relatively new to the top level of football. And he isn’t a proven consistent goal socerer in the Premier League. Arguably, Andy Carroll isn’t a natural finisher too.

But I hope he proves me wrong and takes the Kop by storm.

Some argue that Andy Carroll has shown he can cut it at the Premier League level. It’s a valid point. Andy Carroll has scored 11 Premier League goals already this season. He is the third highest Premier League goal scorer this season. So in the first half of his first season in the Premier League as Newcastle’s number 9 he has shown he can find the net. But how many times have players started off the season brightly scoring lots of goals but then seen a their form dip? Remember Amr Zaki? The former Wigan man’s debut season in the Premier League he initially took the Premier League by storm. In the first half of the season he scored 10 goals, and was being linked to a host of European giants such as Real Madrid. But by the second half of the season, his form had dropped. And he only managed to get one goal in the second half of the season. Most people don’t even know where he plays now (Zamalek, if you were wondering.) The worrying aspect about Carroll is that he hasn’t been able to even prove to himself if he can consistently score in the Premier League, let alone to Liverpool.

Football's top 15 highest transfer record’s show something very clear;

Rank	Player	From	To	Fee (£ in millions)
1	Cristiano Ronaldo	Manchester United	Real Madrid	£80
2	Zlatan Ibrahimović	Internazionale	Barcelona	£56.5
3	Kaká	Milan	Real Madrid	£56
4	Fernando Torres	Liverpool	Chelsea	£50
5	Zinedine Zidane	Juventus	Real Madrid	£45
6	Luís Figo	Barcelona	Real Madrid	£37
7	Hernán Crespo	Parma	Lazio	£35.5
8	Andy Carroll	Newcastle United	Liverpool	£35
9	David Villa	Valencia	Barcelona	£34.2
10	Gianluigi Buffon	Parma	Juventus	£32.6
11	Robinho	Real Madrid	Manchester City	£32.5
12	Christian Vieri	Lazio	Internazionale	£32
13	Andriy Shevchenko	Milan	Chelsea	£30.8
14	Dimitar Berbatov	Tottenham Hotspur	Manchester United	£30.75
15	Pavel Nedvěd	Lazio	Juventus	£30.7

This list shows that every player bar Andy Carroll have all proven themselves before their big money moves. As all these players have regularly played on the international stage, the Champions League and the top leagues of Europe.

The biggest eye opener is when you compare the players to Carroll. Is Carroll in the same bracket of players like David Villa, Hernan Crespo and Andriy Shevchenko? Obviously there different type of strikers to Carroll. But when the big money moves of David Villa, Hernan Crespo and Andriy Shevchenko were made, these players were considered world class. Whereas Carroll has a world class fee but is viewed as a player with potential. This is worrying. As it suggests Liverpool are spalashing £35 million on potential abilty, rather than current abilty.

The fact Liverpool have splashed £35 million on a player who is relatively unproven in the world of football suggests one thing. Panic buy. Its fair to say, Carroll isn’t in the same league as Robhino, David Villa or Andriy Shevchenko (in his day.) But Liverpool felt the urge to replace Torres by any means possible. The reasons to replace are varied. Some argue that it will make the Liverpool owners, FSG look like a selling club, so they needed to show the club is moving forward. While others believe it’s due to the fact Liverpool were lacking a centre forward due to Torres’ departure.

But the fact £35 million has been spent on a player who has scored only 34 professional goals clearly demonstrates the idea of being a panic buy. Every professional goal he has scored is virtually worth £1 million seeing as he was brought for £35 million. Which is an insane notion. Surely if your buying a striker for who is the 8^th most expensive player in the world, he should have scored more than the actual transfer figure itself?

FSG always talk about their ‘long term ambitions.’ The signing of Andy Carroll suggests the opposite. It shows an impulse buy. Yes he has potential, but the fee suggests a desperation to get a player in to replace Torres.

In the longer term it would have been far wiser had Liverpool waited till the summer to find Torres’s successor. As the club could have scouted the Europe and even if they were that keen on Andy Carroll, they could closely watch his progression at Newcastle. And see if he can maintain his consistency in the Premier League for the whole season. Furthermore, if Liverpool waited till the summer, they would have got Andy Carroll for a far friendlier and realistic price.

Once Carroll had arrived at Melwood for his medical journalists began to speculate that Carroll was forced out of Newcastle. Carroll reportedly said ‘I didn't want to leave. Make sure the fans know I didn't want to leave.’ This is worrying. The fact Carroll was reported to have been ousted out of Newcastle suggests his heart may not be with Liverpool for the long run. And the expectations of being Liverpool’s record signing and the 8^th most expensive player in the world may unsettle and alienate the player from loving Liverpool.

Off the pitch, Andy Carroll isn’t an angel. It’s fair to say Andy Carroll is a volatile character. He is known to have arguments with players and has been in trouble with the law a few times. Liverpool are taking a huge risk in taking in a player who could unsettle the squad and could bring bad press to the club. If Liverpool can make Andy Carroll grow up and be a well behaved professional it’s for the best for Liverpool and England. But it’s a damn big risk which could potentially back fire on the club, as it did with a certain British transfer record breaker Stan Collymore.

Andy Carroll is a panic buy acquisition. And this signing has the potential to haunt the club for years. As there are too many flaws in transfer. Firstly, the fee. I can safely say, Liverpool will never recoup any of the cash spent on Carroll. Liverpool are spending huge amounts on potential ability, what happens if this potential ability doesn’t materialise? Liverpool will be world’s football’s laughing stock. And their reputation could be tarnished.

Andy Carroll’s volatile character could leave Liverpool red faced, especially if he poorly represents the club in his personal life. Liverpool must closely look after their record signing. His behaviour off the pitch could be a time ticking bomb.

Liverpool have taken a massive gamble, whether or not it pays off is another question. But this acquisition will have a big effect on Kenny Dalglish’s reign as manager. But there are too many risk factors for the price Liverpool have brought Carroll for. It’s an accident waiting to happen.