Post European Game Syndrome

There is often an argument that after European games, teams tend to struggle to get the three points in their next game. Some argue that it’s due to the lack of preparation time, or the lack of quality in depth or even the lack of fitness. I myself have always thought that it was something along those lines too. 

Now, of course, there needs to be a degree of rationality and a consideration of the wider perspective.
Think about it, often teams can play poorly, yet still walk away with a win. So there is an argument that when people say a team isn’t as efficient or effective after a European game, they could mean in terms of performances, not the result. 

However, I wanted to see how each side that represented the Premier League in Europe this season faired in comparison to each other. 

However, before I point out my observations, we have to consider a few things. Firstly, we have to recognise some teams played more games after a European game, due to their progress in Europe. In order to combat this, I have added the points per game stat. 

Table: Premier League sides representing in Europe: Their record after European Games

Key Observations

·         Business as usual for Manchester United: After European games, Man United have been machine efficient. United won 7 of their 8 post European games which clearly demonstrates this. Perhaps Sir Alex Ferguson’s effective rotation and strength in depth played a key role in Man United’s consistency.

·         Arsenal unbeaten after European games: Both Arsenal and Man United are unbeaten after their European games. But considering this from Arsenal’s perspective, it shows how difficult they are to beat. Their experience and knowhow through many years of having to manage the Champions League and the Premier League is one of the reasons why they remained unbeaten.

·         Man City distinctly average after European games: Man City’s record is pretty average, to be fair. Although they only lost once and conceded the least out of the teams analysed (5), I think they should have done better. But Man City will argue, they had tough games after their Champions League duties, after all, they faced Liverpool away, then Arsenal at home and then Man United at home. But given the squad at Manicni’s disposal, you’d expect them to win one of those games.

·         Liverpool consistently inconsistent: Liverpool’s record after European games isn’t great. The key issue is the high number of draws, which is one of the differences from them being a top 6 side. However, what is interesting is that Liverpool kept 4 clean sheets, which is the highest (alongside Chelsea). In some respects, this shows progress is being made at Anfield, but clearly, more work needs to be done to sustain and build on it.

·         Newcastle shipping goals: Newcastle conceded 20 goals, which is an incredibly high number for a side playing in Europe and for me it symbolises their immense decline this season. Last season, Newcastle were far more solid and settled side defensively. Perhaps the club have missed Steven Taylor and Fabricio Coloccini who have missed parts of the season for one reason or another.

·         Newcastle actually doing rather well…: Although Newcastle are conceding a hell of a lot of goals, they are actually winning fair number of games too. It’s intriguing; there was strong criticism that the lack of depth effected Newcastle’s campaign this season. Although this may well be a valid point, one may need to take it with a pinch of salt. As Newcastle won 5 games from 13, this shows the club has the ability to win games even when playing on a Thursday and then on a Sunday. But it is crucial to note, all 5 of Newcastle’s wins came at home.

Clear Cut Chances and the Premier League

Clear Cut chances are one of those underrated stats in football. The definition of a clear cut chance is ‘A situation where a player should reasonably be expected to score usually in a one-on-one scenario or from very close range.’ (EPL Index) So in other words, a clear cut chance is a chance where the attacker is odds on to score, it can range from a one on one finish, a unmarked headed chance or a tap in chance.

My theory is this, the more clear cut chances you create, the more goals you score, let’s see how many clear cut chances the Premier League sides have created this season.

Summary of Clear Cut Chances & Chances Created

Green =best, Red = worst

Home Clear Cut Chances

Stats via EPL Index

Away Clear Cut Chances

Clear Cut Chances and Goals Scored

My theory that the more clear cut chances you create, the more goals you score is not 100% true. The likes of Tottenham and Reading both break that line of thinking, but the stats do suggest a some connection between clear cut chances and goals scored.  

Key Points/ Observations

·         Man United creating clear cut chances in abundance: Man United have created an incredible amount of clear cut chances. This is one of the reasons why United are free scoring this season. United have created more than double the chances of around 6 Premier League sides. One must credit Sir Alex Ferguson’s ability to create sides and find players that have the understanding and tactical awareness to create good chances for their fellow team mates. It is quite clear looking at the stats, Man United create a stupendous amount of clear cut chances at home, no other Premier League side have created 20 clear cut chances at home, while United have created 26, which roughly equates to 3 clear cut chances created per home game. If Man United continue to create clear cut chances at this rate, I believe they will carry on scoring for fun this season.

·         Norwich creating an impressive amount of clear cut chances: Norwich have been on a monumental run of late, going unbeaten in their last 10 PL games. This run has been fuelled by the fact Norwich have the ability to create a decent amount of clear cut chances. A reasonable 15% of the chances Norwich have created have been clear cut. What impresses me about The Canaries, is although they do not create a whole deal of chances, the chances they do create are quality chances, which can be the difference between winning and losing games.

·         Everton have created the most chances in the Premier League: Everton being the top creators in the Premier League is no surprise to me. After all, the likes of Baines are have the fantastic ability to create chances not only in open play but from set pieces too. But Everton creating 27 clear cut chances is not bad at all, what will satisfy David Moyes the most is the a near equilibrium in the clear cut chances created home or away. 

·         Arsenal create the most clear cut chances away from home: Perhaps this comes as no surprise to some, after all, Arsenal are at their most effective when playing on the counter and away from home, they have a better chance to counter, as the opponent presses higher and plays a higher line.

·         Wigan’s poor 4 clear cut chances created away from home is an early concern: At the DW Wigan have no problem creating clear cut chances, however, on the road, it’s a different story. What surprised me was the fact, Wigan’s system is predominantly structured on counter attacking and you’d expect them to create more clear cut chances on the road, given it is more likely that there will be more space for them to exploit on the road. Furthermore, it is probable that a clear cut chance will be created when there is more space, as the marking is lax and players can be found out of position.

·         Liverpool creating chances, but not enough quality chances: Liverpool’s lack of finesse in front of goal has been widely talked about for the past 18 months. However, there have been many calls that, ‘Liverpool are one natural goal scorer away from being successful.’ I am unsure of this, although having a goal poacher would certainly see Liverpool score more goals, the quality of the chances Liverpool have created has not been great. Only 9% of Liverpool’s chances have been clear cut, there are 14 sides who have created more clear cut chances than The Reds, even though Liverpool have created the second highest amount of chances in the Premier League. If Liverpool are to improve their League standing, I feel they need to indeed their chances, but more pertinently the chances they create have to be better, therefore making it easier for the attackers to finish.

·         Aston Villa’s struggling to create at home: A few seasons ago, Villa park was something of a fortress , but a mere 4 clear cut chances being created at home is something which perhaps demonstrates this young Villa sides lack of experience and know how. Perhaps the pressure of playing in front of a big crowd is having an effect on Villa’s expressive side of their game, if you look at their away clear cut chances, its far far better, I think it is a mental aspect which is effecting this young Villa team at home.

·         Tottenham scoring comfortably, yet not created many clear cut chances: This is an odd one, one which really surprised me, prior to looking up the stats, I expected Tottenham to be up there with the teams creating the most quality chances in the Premier League, I mean look at their creative players, the likes of Lennon, Bale, Dembele and Dempsey. These are all players who can create quality chances. I expect Spurs to create more clear cut chances as the squad grows into AVB’s team. 

And to finish off, here's a pie chart showing how much or how little clear cut chances the Premier League sides have created.

 

(Stats from EPL Index, Date stats taken: 18/12/12 ) 

Stats: Premier League and Penalties

So, it's been a bit too long since I have made a post on here, apologies, I have been busy with life. But since I have had some free time, I have made a few graphs analysing the penalties in the Premier League. So go on, take a little look. Penalties have been discussed quite a bit in recent times, ahead of the Manchester Derby, Sir Alex Ferguson questioned the number of penalties Man City had been awarded at home, while Liverpool fans have been annoyed by the lack of penalties they have received this season.

Overview

Penalties sorted from the highest awarded to the least.

Penalties at Home

So in the next digram below, we show the number of penalties scored at home and their conversion percentage.

Penalties away

Again, same thing as home, but this time away from home.

Penalty Scorers

The players who have scored from the spot this season and the number they have scored via penalties.

So, what are your thoughts on this guys? Feel free to comment or tweet me @ReviewFootball.

Stats taken on 11/12/2012 - After 16 PL games, stats do not take into consideration Sunderland - Reading, played on the same date as stats collected.

Psychological Effects

Hello there, I am Callum Rivett, and welcome to this instalment of my articles. Today, I will be looking at a subject close to a number of footballer’s hearts: the mental side of the game.

One hears many a manager saying the game is “played in the mind” and some may wonder what that means. It is one of the reasons that there are upsets. The reason why teams are able to win games that perhaps they shouldn’t. They either had a fantastic game plan, or they were prepared enough mentally to go out and challenge. The opposition (let’s call them Champions) may well go into the game against the Underdogs thinking they will be 3-0 up by half-time and it’s an easy three points.

However, if the Underdogs come out and attack, it puts the Champions mindset under threat. This isn’t the team they were expecting. They thought they would be able to stroll to an easy victory. The Champions were not adequately prepared mentally. The Underdogs set up to frustrate and annoy the Champions, get stuck in, and subsequently win the game.

That was purely a figment of imagination, but it happens every week. Norwich 1, Arsenal 0 last week. Middlesbrough 4, Manchester United 1 in 2005. The list goes on. These are just notable examples I can drag up from my memory banks.

There is also a mental side to the game that the supporters and media do not see. The side of depression.
Dean Windass and Darren Eadie are just two ex-pros who admitted that they were suffering from depression after leaving football, and in my opinion it is easy to see how it can happen. You grow up with football: football is your childhood, as it is mine. You don’t know anything other than kicking a ball around grass into a net. Your whole mental mindset is being focussed on the weekend, on the next game. That is what your week builds up to as a professional footballer.

When I step onto the football pitch, I become a different person. Every thing bad that has happened in the week is forgotten when you cross that white line in the grass, when that first whistle blows. You are absorbed in the game, you and it are one. Every kick, every goal: you feel it. You feel the emotion running through you, and you love it, you crave it.

When it is taken away - either through retirement or injury - you lose a part of yourself. You lose the part that everyone knew, that everyone saw. Your whole life hinged on playing football, then it’s gone.
Nothing can match the thrill of adrenaline that football provides, it is unique. It doesn’t require the type of courage that throwing yourself out of a plane does. It isn’t the bravery of saving a life. It’s something entirely different, yet entirely simple.

Football fills you with a determination: I will win that header, I will make that tackle.

Football relieves stress. Whilst exercising, neurotransmitters are stimulated, and these are responsible for producing sensations such as happiness, or the feeling of stress relief. Endorphins are produced, which target the limbic and prefrontal areas of the brain; the areas associated with emotions and feelings. Footballers run many kilometres a game in total, and these endorphins produce a phenomenon called “runner’s high”.
But endorphins are also related to addiction. Drug addicts have been shown to have high levels of endorphins, according to a paper published by the neuroscience journal Impulse.

What that means is that football is a drug. It is an addiction, and when it is taken away, players often feel low, depressed. Watching a game live does not quite replicate the feeling that playing does, so offers only a temporary reprieve. Footballers may have to make do with coaching, but sometimes - in the sad case of Gary Speed - it is not enough.

On a different approach, injury can also cause depression. Injury is a lonely place: your fellow professionals are outside, kicking the ball around, whilst you are stuck in the gym trying frantically to build up your muscles and match fitness. Depression can hit even the player with the strongest mind.

To conclude, more support needs to be given to players who have retired and are struggling, or are out injured for long periods of time. Whether they are in the Ridgeons Premier or in the Premier League, there needs to be support give by the PFA. Depression can affect everybody, and the best possible support needs to be given to those suffering from it, either in football or someone from everyday life.

Follow Callum on twitter: @CJRivett12. You can find more of Callum's work here.