Gary
Cahill has been a name which been branded across all the gossip columns. The likes of Arsenal, Liverpool, Man United and other big clubs have been rumoured in showing an interest in the centre back. One would have to say, its justified. As he clearly is a decent ball playing centre back. But, one thing has always confused me about Gary
Cahill. His valuation.
Bolton in January demanded £20 million for Cahill. This begs the question, is Gary
Cahill that good?
Now, of course, no one can deny Gary Cahill’s ability. He is a centre back who is competent with the ball at his feet, he can win his fair share of headers and has a great attacking instinct for a centre back. When one remembers Gary Cahill, they remember his fantastic goals. That brilliant overhead kick versus Birmingham comes to mind. Or just recently, his brace against his former side Aston Villa. Its evident he is a centre back who knows how to take his chances.
But being a centre back, his finishing skills are useful, but there not as vital as other attributes. The question mark about Gary Cahill is simply been about, how good is he defensively. On the surface, it seems he is most certainly at Premier League standard for these attributes.
However, is this really worth £20 million? I have taken a close look at three English centre backs. Gary Cahill, John Terry and Joleon Lescott. I have analysed their last 5 games and have compared them to Gary Cahill’s last 5 games. If Gary Cahill is near these centre backs in terms of statistics in winning tackles, making interceptions and successfully passing. Maybe the price tag is justified. 
The reason why I have chosen Terry and Lescott is because of two reasons. John Terry was chosen simply because he is arguably England’s best centre back at the moment. So if Gary Cahill’s stats are similar to John Terry’s perhaps his valuation and interest from bigger clubs is tolerable. While Joleon Lescott was chosen because he is a similar player to Gary Cahill. He is similar in the sense that Joleon Lescott was signed for Manchester City for £22 million. And like Cahill, people are still questioning his ability and whether it correlates to the £22 million shelled out to buy him.
The first attribute we will analyse is passing. A defender’s ability to pass well goes along way. As most teams start their attacks from the back, and centre backs see a lot of the ball. On the surface, Gary Cahill is a good passer. He has a fine passing range and has no qualms in passing offensively. But let us compare his passing statistics to John Terry’s and Joleon Lescott’s.
Gary Cahill – Passing – Last 5 Games
| Fixture | No. of Passes | No. of successful passes | No. of unsuccessful passes | Percentage of successful passes |
| V West Ham (Home) | 26 | 17 | 9 | 65% |
| V Birmingham City (Away) | 29 | 18 | 11 | 62% |
| V Manchester United (away) | 19 | 11 | 8 | 57% |
| V Aston Villa (Home) | 27 | 20 | 7 | 74% |
| V Newcastle (Away) | 39 | 31 | 8 | 79% |
| Total | 140 | 97 | 43 |
|
John Terry –Passing – Last 5 games
| Fixture | No. of Passes | No. of successful passes | No. of unsuccessful passes | Percentage of successful passes |
| V Stoke (Away) | 43 | 33 | 10 | 76% |
| V Man City (Home) | 57 | 52 | 5 | 91% |
| V Blackpool (Away) | 63 | 55 | 8 | 87% |
| V Man United (Home) | 32 | 24 | 8 | 75% |
| V Fulham (Away) | 69 | 64 | 5 | 92% |
| Total | 264 | 173 | 36 |
|
Joleon Lescott – Passing – Last 5 Games
| Fixture | No. of Passes | No. of successful passes | No. of unsuccessful passes | Percentage of successful passes |
| V Liverpool (Away) | 32 | 22 | 10 | 68% |
| V Sunderland (Home) | 27 | 21 | 6 | 77% |
| V Chelsea (Away) | 26 | 19 | 7 | 73% |
| V Wigan (Home) | 35 | 30 | 5 | 85% |
| V Fulham (Home) | 53 | 37 | 16 | 69% |
| Total | 173 | 129 | 44 |
|
Its evidently clear, in the last 5 games, Gary Cahill’s passing wasn’t as good as Joleon Lescott’s nor anywhere near as good as John Terry’s. However, one must consider because Lescott and Terry play for two teams in the Champions League places. It’s expected that their teams will see far more of the ball compared to their opponents. Thus explaining why Terry saw almost double the amount of passes compared to Gary Cahill. But the success percentage is rather alarming. The highest percentage Cahill earned in the 5 games was 79%, while Lescott’s was 85% and Terry’s was 92%. This shows that Gary Cahill’s passing range isn’t as effective as Lescott’s or Terry’s. However, this can be justified. Throughout the 5 matches when I analysed Cahill’s passing range, it seemed he often tried the long pass. Whereas Terry consistently kept his passing short. However, the fact the average of Cahill’s passing success rate is far smaller than Terry’s and Lescott shows that there is room for improvement.
The second attribute under inspection is tackling. Obviously, tackling is an imperative for a centre back. Being able to successfully tackle also highlights other attributes too. A successful tackler is an individual who has good positioning, good composure, good anticipation, good acceleration and other attributes. Below are the tackling statistics of Joleon Lescott, Gary Cahill and John Terry.
Gary Cahill – Tackling – Last 5 Games
| Fixture | No. of tackles | No. of successful tackles | No. of unsuccessful tackles | Percentage of successful tackles |
| V West Ham (Home) | 8 | 3 | 5 | 37% |
| V Birmingham (Away) | 7 | 5 | 2 | 71% |
| V Man United (Away) | 5 | 3 | 2 | 60% |
| V Aston Villa (Home) | 7 | 5 | 2 | 71% |
| V Newcastle (Away) | 11 | 7 | 4 | 63% |
| Total | 38 | 23 | 15 |
|
John Terry – Tackling – Last 5 Games
| Fixture | No. of tackles | No. of successful tackles | No. of unsuccessful tackles | Percentage of successful tackles |
| V Stoke (Away) | 11 | 4 | 7 | 36% |
| V Man City (Home) | 8 | 6 | 2 | 75% |
| V Blackpool (Away) | 11 | 8 | 3 | 72% |
| V Man United (Home) | 8 | 7 | 1 | 87% |
| V Fulham (Away) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% |
| Total | 41 | 28 | 12 |
|
Joleon Lescott – Tackling – last 5 Games | Fixture | No. of tackles | No. of successful tackles | No. of unsuccessful tackles | Percentage of successful tackles |
| V Liverpool (Away) | 5 | 3 | 2 | 60% |
| V Sunderland (Home) | 5 | 5 | 0 | 100% |
| V Chelsea (Away) | 4 | 4 | 0 | 100% |
| V Wigan (Home) | 5 | 5 | 0 | 100% |
| V Fulham (Home) | 7 | 6 | 1 | 85% |
| Total | 26 | 23 | 3 |
|
Again, Gary Cahill is trailing both Joleon Lescott and John Terry. However, its clear Cahill does win most of his tackles but at the same time, he does lose a fair amount too. If this is compared to John Terry, England’s leading centre back. Terry clearly wins most of his tackles. Bar the Stoke City game. But when Terry has more successful challenges than unsuccessful challenges, his tackling success rate in the last 5 games is 72% or above. While within those 5 games, the highest success percentage for Gary Cahill is 71%. This shows there is a substantial difference between the two players in terms of tackling.
What did surprise me, was how successful Joleon Lescott’s tackling success rate was in the last 5 games. Like Cahill, for me the jury has still out for Joleon Lescott. I have never thought that highly of him as a defender. But the statistics do all the talking. In 26 tackles, he has only lost 3 of those tackles. That is a fantastic record. Cahill has lost 5 times more than that. This shows there is a clear difference between Cahill and Lescott in terms of tackling. Cahill’s last 5 games show that his tackling rate isn’t outstanding at all. And he clearly hasn’t got one of the best rates in the Premier League. Yet, he is still one of the Premier League’s most wanted centre backs. 
The third attribute being analysed is the number of interceptions. A defenders ability to read the game is critical. It restricts the number of chances the opposition could potentially have. Having centre backs who can effectively read the game is priceless. As it gives them an edge over their opponents. As they can foresee what their opponent is planning. Here are Cahill’s, Terry’s and Lescott’s interception rates from the past 5 games.
Gary Cahill – Interceptions – Last 5 Games
| Fixture | No. of successful interceptions |
| V West Ham (Home) | 2 |
| V Birmingham (Away) | 1 |
| V Man United (Away) | 1 |
| V Aston Villa (Home) | 1 |
| V Newcastle (Away) | 3 |
| Total | 8 |
| Fixture | No. of successful interceptions |
| V Stoke (Away) | 2 |
| V Man City (Away) | 3 |
| V Blackpool (Away) | 1 |
| V Man United (Home) | 2 |
| V Fulham (Away) | 1 |
| Total | 9 |
Joleon Lescott – Interceptions – Last 5 games | Fixture | No. of interceptions |
| V Liverpool (Away) | 1 |
| V Sunderland (Home) | 2 |
| V Chelsea (Away) | 3 |
| V Wigan (Home) | 2 |
| V Fulham (Home) | 1 |
| Total | 9 |
For the first time, Gary Cahill’s statistics are close to the other two players. This tells you something. The fact Cahill has intercepted 8 times within 5 games it could suggest that Cahill is a good reader of the game. Perhaps, this is a contributing factor to why people ask if Gary Cahill is really that good. Normally, the types of defenders who are memorable are those who often make last ditch tackles and clearances. However, making last ditch challenges suggests a poor reading of the game. As they see the opposition’s attacks late. Whiles, a good reader of the game can prevent these attacks without having to resort to a last ditch challenge. However, in contrast, one may argue that what makes Cahill such an appealing defender is his fantastic reading of the game.
It’s vital to say that, the last five games do not provide a true snap shot of Gary Cahill’s ability. It simply provides a bit of an incite into the player’s ability. Perhaps, using a different batch of 5 games could have made the statistics better or worse. As it depends on factors such as the fixture and whether the match is home or away.
But the last five games have shown that Gary Cahill’s abilities for me are slightly over rated. Of course, he can read the game well, but the game extends to more than that. His tackling success rate is still questionable and his passing could be far more accurate. This shows there still needs to be a vast amount of improvement before he really does live up to the valuation of £20 million.
However, the 6ft2 centre back has the potential to become one of the best defenders in the league. The general all round ability of Gary Cahill makes him appealing to all the big European sides. If he ends up going to a big club such as an Arsenal, which is pretty much expected. It could naturally make the player improve. As teams like Arsenal will see more of the ball so his passing would naturally improve. While the sheer competitiveness of being at an elite European side would assist his tackling success ratio.
But had his statistics been outstanding maybe this would have made his valuation a little justifiable. But at the moment, his defensive attributes do not provide a substantial reason to why he is valued that highly. Perhaps the simple fact that he is English provides a crucial lynchpin for his valuation.
However, one thing is for certain. Gary Cahill has a big future at a big club.
But at the moment it seems he is over rated.
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